Week 1 2026 · September 13, 2026
Cardinals at Chargers, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
The Cardinals beat the Chargers 26–14, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Cardinals win 5 of 10.
Before kickoff the Chargers were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 12:28 left): Blocked punt by the Cardinals, worth 15 points of win probability to the Cardinals.
Final
 Arizona Cardinals | 26 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Chargers | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 Cardinals lucky · −49 Chargers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cardinals win 5, Chargers win 5.
- 1 ARI 34 LAC 14
- 2 ARI 30 LAC 17
- 3 ARI 29 LAC 20
- 4 ARI 36 LAC 31
- 5 ARI 30 LAC 28
- 6 ARI 10 LAC 13
- 7 ARI 16 LAC 21
- 8 ARI 17 LAC 27
- 9 ARI 10 LAC 24
- 10 ARI 14 LAC 35
Your call
Did the Cardinals earn it, or get lucky?
Our prediction before kickoff
We had the Chargers by 7.2, 71% to win. The Cardinals won by 12, a result we gave 29%. The final margin was 19.2 points from ours; 14% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Cardinals win | 28.5% |
| Chargers win | 71.5% |
| Middle 50%: Cardinals by 3 to Chargers by 16 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Cardinals by 14 to Chargers by 28 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Cardinals by 18 to Chargers by 32 | 95% |
| Exactly Chargers by 3 | 8.2% |
| Exactly Cardinals by 3 | 6.3% |
| Exactly Chargers by 7 | 5.8% |
| Exactly Chargers by 14 | 5.0% |
| Exactly Chargers by 10 | 4.5% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cardinals win 51% of them, Chargers 49%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 12.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cardinals by 17+ | 11.3% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 14.4% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 22.1% |
| Level after regulation | 5.2% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 22.6% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 13.8% |
| Chargers by 17+ | 10.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Ryland, 54 yds missed · 65% expected
- C. Ryland, 27 yds made · 96% expected
- C. Ryland, 44 yds made · 83% expected
- C. Ryland, 34 yds made · 93% expected
- C. Ryland, 49 yds made · 70% expected
Penalties: Cardinals 8 for 111 yards, Chargers 7 for 64 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:59 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% LAC +1.4 pts |
| Q2 12:43 | False Start on the Cardinals (Hunter Long), 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% LAC +0.6 pts |
| Q2 10:31 | False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LAC +0.7 pts |
| Q2 6:47 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chargers, 10 yards | +4% ARI +1.6 pts |
| Q2 6:33 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Denzel Burke), 24 yards | +5% LAC +1.8 pts |
| Q2 0:37 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Donte Jackson), 24 yards | +4% ARI +1.7 pts |
| Q2 0:09 | Face Mask on the Cardinals, 15 yards | +4% LAC +0.8 pts |
| Q3 13:03 | False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ARI +0.8 pts |
| Q3 7:25 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Max Melton), 48 yards | +9% LAC +3.1 pts |
| Q3 7:25 | Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Cardinals (Chad Ryland), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% LAC 0.0 pts |
| Q3 3:46 | False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% LAC +0.6 pts |
| Q3 1:22 | False Start on the Chargers (Charlie Kolar), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ARI +0.6 pts |
| Q4 4:33 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards | +2% ARI +1.0 pts |
| Q4 4:33 | False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARI +0.8 pts |
| Q4 4:33 | False Start on the Chargers (Quentin Johnston), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARI +0.3 pts |
Cardinals penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Chargers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:30 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +8% ARI | ARI: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 14:55 | C. Ryland missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 21 of 35 from 45+ before | +7% LAC | ARI: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 13:37 | The Chargers fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% ARI | LAC: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q2 8:59 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +7% ARI | ARI: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 2:00 | The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +10% ARI | LAC: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 7:25 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Max Melton), 48 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1241 snaps before, position avg 1 per 211Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Cardinals (Chad Ryland), 0 yardsPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 392 snaps before, position avg 1 per 236 | +9% LAC | LAC: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 6:07 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +9% LAC | LAC: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 12:28 | Blocked punt by the CardinalsSpecial teams | +15% ARI | ARI: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Denzel Perryman (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- R.J. Mickens (LAC S), out · 0.1 pts
- Garrett Williams (ARI CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Isaiah Adams (ARI OL), out · 0.3 pts
- Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (ARI S), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cardinals 99% · Chargers 1%
- Final margin
- Cardinals by 12
- Luck in points
- 1.8 for the Chargers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cardinals by 13.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Cardinals 51% · Chargers 49% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Cardinals · 
Chargers
More from Week 1 2026
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- 49ers vs Rams SF 27–7 · replay 89% for the winner
- Falcons at Steelers PIT 20–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- Ravens at Colts BAL 41–23 · replay 87% for the winner
- Bills at Texans BUF 36–31 · replay 87% for the winner
- Bears at Panthers CHI 59–37 · replay 87% for the winner
- Browns at Jaguars JAX 34–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Saints at Lions DET 31–30 · replay 43% for the winner
- Jets at Titans NYJ 23–10 · replay 73% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Bengals CIN 33–27 · replay 94% for the winner
- Packers at Vikings MIN 39–22 · replay 46% for the winner
- Dolphins at Raiders LV 27–13 · replay 44% for the winner
- Commanders at Eagles PHI 24–22 · replay 41% for the winner
- Cowboys at Giants NYG 28–20 · replay 15% for the winner
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