luckadjusted

Week 1 2026 · September 13, 2026

Buccaneers at Bengals, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Buccaneers 33–27, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 10 of 10. The Buccaneers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.7 points to the Buccaneers.

An off day for the Buccaneers: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Bengals were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:29 left): the Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 50 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27
Cincinnati Bengals 33

September 13, 2026 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −3.5

Luck index +4 Bengals about even · −4 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 0, Bengals win 10.

  1. 1 TB 14 CIN 16
  2. 2 TB 23 CIN 27
  3. 3 TB 14 CIN 23
  4. 4 TB 10 CIN 20
  5. 5 TB 31 CIN 44
  6. 6 TB 6 CIN 21
  7. 7 TB 3 CIN 20
  8. 8 TB 7 CIN 28
  9. 9 TB 6 CIN 31
  10. 10 TB 3 CIN 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Buccaneers

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.

35 points apart for the Buccaneers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Buccaneers offenseEPA per play gained +0.22 +0.09 better by 0.13
Buccaneers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.15 +0.13 worse by 0.02
Bengals offenseEPA per play gained +0.15 +0.11 better by 0.04
Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed +0.22 +0.18 worse by 0.04

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 4% of them, Bengals 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+0.1%
Buccaneers by 9–160.7%
Buccaneers by 1–82.5%
Level after regulation0.5%
Bengals by 1–812.7%
Bengals by 9–1619.0%
Bengals by 17+64.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bengals by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes even.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • E. McPherson, 20 yds made · 100% expected
  • E. McPherson, 55 yds made · 65% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 51 yds made · 74% expected
  • E. McPherson, 58 yds made · 61% expected
  • E. McPherson, 32 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:23 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +5% TB TB: Field goal
2 Q1 9:19 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% CIN TB: Field goal
3 Q1 6:29 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Buccaneers fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the BengalsSpecial teams +50% CIN TB: Turnover
4 Q1 5:38 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedThe Buccaneers fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% CIN TB: Turnover
5 Q2 12:52 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Tacario Davis), 12 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · no snap history yet +11% TB TB: Turnover
6 Q3 2:24 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedThe Bengals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BuccaneersSpecial teams +30% TB CIN: Field goal
7 Q3 1:37 The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% CIN CIN: Field goal
8 Q4 14:15 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +4% TB CIN: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Shemar Stewart (CIN DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jalen McMillan (TB WR), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 50% · Bengals 50%

Final margin
Bengals by 6
Luck in points
6.0 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
even
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 4% · Bengals 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Buccaneers · Bengals

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