Week 1 2026 · September 13, 2026
Commanders at Eagles, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
The Eagles beat the Commanders 24–22, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Eagles win 4 of 10.
Before kickoff the Eagles were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:03 left): the Eagles converted 3rd & 18, worth 16 points of win probability to the Eagles.
Final
 Washington Commanders | 22 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +59 Eagles lucky · −59 Commanders
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Commanders win 6, Eagles win 4.
- 1 WAS 45 PHI 20
- 2 WAS 24 PHI 6
- 3 WAS 27 PHI 16
- 4 WAS 16 PHI 9
- 5 WAS 15 PHI 10
- 6 WAS 24 PHI 22
- 7 WAS 22 PHI 24
- 8 WAS 21 PHI 27
- 9 WAS 19 PHI 30
- 10 WAS 3 PHI 22
Your call
Did the Eagles earn it, or get lucky?
Our prediction before kickoff
We had the Eagles by 7.3, 72% to win. The Eagles won by 2: the pick was right. The final margin was 5.3 points from ours; 66% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Commanders win | 28.2% |
| Eagles win | 71.8% |
| Middle 50%: Commanders by 3 to Eagles by 16 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Commanders by 14 to Eagles by 28 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Commanders by 18 to Eagles by 32 | 95% |
| Exactly Eagles by 3 | 8.1% |
| Exactly Commanders by 3 | 6.2% |
| Exactly Eagles by 7 | 5.8% |
| Exactly Eagles by 14 | 5.0% |
| Exactly Eagles by 10 | 4.5% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Commanders win 59% of them, Eagles 41%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Commanders by 17+ | 14.4% |
| Commanders by 9–16 | 15.3% |
| Commanders by 1–8 | 28.1% |
| Level after regulation | 3.5% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 19.1% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 12.0% |
| Eagles by 17+ | 7.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Stevens, 55 yds made · 64% expected
- D. Stevens, 54 yds missed · 65% expected
- J. Elliott, 35 yds made · 93% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Commanders 6 for 45 yards, Eagles 5 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:32 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards | +3% WAS +0.9 pts |
| Q1 1:02 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards | +3% WAS +1.7 pts |
| Q2 10:42 | Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Jacory Croskey-Merritt), 10 yards | +4% PHI +1.4 pts |
| Q2 5:28 | Delay of Game on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.8 pts |
| Q3 9:46 | Delay of Game on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% PHI +0.7 pts |
| Q3 7:48 | Illegal Contact on the Eagles (Cooper DeJean), 5 yards | +4% WAS +1.0 pts |
| Q3 4:29 | False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PHI +0.5 pts |
| Q3 3:44 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards | +3% WAS +1.3 pts |
| Q4 12:12 | False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.7 pts |
| Q4 10:04 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Commanders (Stefon Diggs), 15 yards | +3% PHI +1.1 pts |
| Q4 8:11 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WAS +0.4 pts |
Commanders penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Eagles’ chance of winning
As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:25 | The Commanders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +10% WAS | WAS: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 14:17 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +8% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 12:12 | The Commanders converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedFalse Start on the Commanders, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +8% WAS | WAS: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 8:03 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +16% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 4:13 | The Commanders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +15% WAS | WAS: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 2:08 | The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +6% PHI | WAS: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 2:04 | The Commanders converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +7% WAS | WAS: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 1:01 | The Commanders’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +13% PHI | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Laremy Tunsil (WAS T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Treylon Burks (WAS WR), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Commanders 39% · Eagles 61%
- Final margin
- Eagles by 2
- Luck in points
- 1.5 for the Eagles
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eagles by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Commanders 59% · Eagles 41% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Commanders · 
Eagles
More from Week 1 2026
- Patriots at Seahawks SEA 13–10 · replay 77% for the winner
- 49ers vs Rams SF 27–7 · replay 89% for the winner
- Falcons at Steelers PIT 20–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- Ravens at Colts BAL 41–23 · replay 87% for the winner
- Bills at Texans BUF 36–31 · replay 87% for the winner
- Bears at Panthers CHI 59–37 · replay 87% for the winner
- Browns at Jaguars JAX 34–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Saints at Lions DET 31–30 · replay 43% for the winner
- Jets at Titans NYJ 23–10 · replay 73% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Bengals CIN 33–27 · replay 94% for the winner
- Cardinals at Chargers ARI 26–14 · replay 51% for the winner
- Packers at Vikings MIN 39–22 · replay 46% for the winner
- Dolphins at Raiders LV 27–13 · replay 44% for the winner
- Cowboys at Giants NYG 28–20 · replay 15% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 31–10 · replay 86% for the winner