luckadjusted

Week 1 2026 · September 13, 2026

Commanders at Eagles, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Commanders 24–22, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Eagles win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 2.4 points to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:13 left): the Commanders fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 16 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Washington Commanders 22
Philadelphia Eagles 24

September 13, 2026 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −6

Luck index +59 Eagles lucky · −59 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 6, Eagles win 4.

  1. 1 WAS 30 PHI 7
  2. 2 WAS 21 PHI 6
  3. 3 WAS 36 PHI 24
  4. 4 WAS 30 PHI 23
  5. 5 WAS 9 PHI 6
  6. 6 WAS 23 PHI 21
  7. 7 WAS 10 PHI 13
  8. 8 WAS 16 PHI 23
  9. 9 WAS 15 PHI 27
  10. 10 WAS 20 PHI 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 59% of them, Eagles 41%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+14.1%
Commanders by 9–1617.8%
Commanders by 1–826.0%
Level after regulation3.4%
Eagles by 1–819.7%
Eagles by 9–1612.3%
Eagles by 17+6.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 0.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Stevens, 55 yds made · 63% expected
  • D. Stevens, 54 yds missed · 65% expected
  • J. Elliott, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:25 The Commanders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +10% WAS WAS: Field goal
2 Q2 14:17 The Eagles converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +11% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q4 12:12 The Commanders converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedFalse Start on the Commanders, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +11% WAS WAS: Touchdown
4 Q4 8:03 The Eagles converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +16% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q4 6:12 The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +15% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:13 The Commanders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% WAS WAS: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:04 The Commanders converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +7% WAS WAS: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:01 The Commanders’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +13% PHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Laremy Tunsil (WAS T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Treylon Burks (WAS WR), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 35% · Eagles 65%

Final margin
Eagles by 2
Luck in points
1.2 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 59% · Eagles 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Commanders · Eagles

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