2026 season · in progress
Washington Commanders, 2026: game by game
The Commanders went 0–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 0.8 wins. Luck cost them 0.8: the 2nd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–1.
Every game
How often the Commanders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Commanders’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +3.1 | +1.57 |
| Judgment calls | +0.7 | +0.36 |
| Injuries | −1.4 | −0.71 |
| Drops | −1.6 | −0.82 |
| Kicks | −6.9 | −3.46 |