2026 season · in progress
Washington Commanders, 2026: game by game
The Commanders went 2–5–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 3.5 wins. Luck cost them 1.0: the 9th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–3–1.
Every game
How often the Commanders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Commanders win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 · Nov 12 | at Giants |  Giants by 3.8 | 38% |
| Week 11 · Nov 23 | vs Bengals |  Bengals by 3.7 | 39% |
| Week 12 · Nov 29 | at Cardinals |  Commanders by 0.1 | 50% |
| Week 13 · Dec 6 | at Titans | Commanders by 2.2 | 57% |
| Week 14 · Dec 13 | vs Texans |  Texans by 1.1 | 47% |
| Week 15 · Dec 20 | vs Falcons | Commanders by 1.6 | 55% |
| Week 16 · Dec 27 | at Vikings |  Vikings by 5.9 | 33% |
| Week 17 · Jan 3 | at Jaguars |  Jaguars by 11.3 | 20% |
| Week 18 · Jan 10 | vs Cowboys |  Cowboys by 1.4 | 46% |
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Commanders’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.65 | +16.8 |
| Kicks | +0.63 | +2.4 |
| Rest | +0.04 | +1.4 |
| Drops | −0.07 | −6.1 |
| Judgment calls | −0.23 | −7.3 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.49 | −10.8 |