Referee calls · 2019–2026
Do refs favor the Commanders?
No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth −0.13 points a game to the Commanders since 2019, 20th of 32 teams. In the playoffs: −1.08 points a game over 4 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.
Call luck, season by season
Points per regular-season game from judgment calls: the calls that helped the Commanders minus the calls that hurt them.
Biggest calls for the Commanders
- Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Talanoa Hufanga), 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 13 · 68 pts of win probability
- Illegal Contact on the Giants (Tre Hawkins), 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2023 Week 11 · 63 pts of win probability
- Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2023 Week 1 · 31 pts of win probability
- Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 16 · 22 pts of win probability
- Illegal Use of Hands on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2021 Week 1 · 19 pts of win probability
Biggest calls against
- Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 13 · 63 pts of win probability
- Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 11 yards · 2024 Week 8 · 22 pts of win probability
- Roughing the Passer on the Commanders (Cody Barton), 15 yards, wiping out the play · 2023 Week 6 · 22 pts of win probability
- Unnecessary Roughness on the Commanders, 12 yards · 2022 Week 13 · 20 pts of win probability
- Illegal Contact on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 4 · 20 pts of win probability
Questions
Do refs favor the Commanders?
No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth −0.13 points a game to the Commanders since 2019, 20th of 32 teams.
What about the playoffs?
In the playoffs: −1.08 points a game over 4 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.
How is this measured?
Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.
Is it more than chance?
Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.
All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · Washington Commanders, every season