2023 NFL season · final · regular season

Referee calls, 2023: who they helped

Judgment calls helped the Cowboys most in 2023: +0.96 wins, the calls that went their way minus the ones that didn’t, each weighted by the moment it came. They hurt the Giants most: −1.50 wins. The Jets were flagged the most, 124 times.

Judgment calls are the flags an official has to judge: holding, pass interference, roughing and the like. Each is valued by what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out, so a call in a decided game counts for nothing and one at the turn of a close game for most of a win. Week to week a team’s call luck barely repeats (correlation 0.09), which is what chance looks like. How calls are valued

#	Team	Call luck, wins	Judgment flags against	For	Pre-snap flags against
1	Cowboys	+0.96	70	66	45
2	Broncos	+0.91	59	66	40
3	Vikings	+0.89	47	68	42
4	Bengals	+0.76	44	60	32
5	Falcons	+0.73	54	62	30
6	Raiders	+0.71	43	66	32
7	Rams	+0.68	63	66	26
8	Steelers	+0.34	58	55	28
9	Jaguars	+0.33	37	65	46
10	Commanders	+0.30	54	64	33
11	Panthers	+0.27	57	61	46
12	Browns	+0.23	57	62	58
13	49ers	+0.15	63	59	38
14	Packers	+0.12	61	58	43
15	Titans	+0.05	66	62	44
16	Lions	+0.02	66	52	31
17	Buccaneers	0.00	59	58	41
18	Cardinals	−0.03	67	60	34
19	Eagles	−0.04	49	62	45
20	Chargers	−0.12	53	59	26
21	Jets	−0.12	70	57	54
22	Dolphins	−0.14	58	48	39
23	Saints	−0.23	62	59	34
24	Texans	−0.36	70	60	44
25	Seahawks	−0.37	66	56	44
26	Chiefs	−0.48	63	45	33
27	Colts	−0.49	50	54	45
28	Ravens	−0.69	68	61	34
29	Patriots	−0.86	53	46	36
30	Bills	−0.89	70	55	36
31	Bears	−1.14	58	37	41
32	Giants	−1.50	57	63	32

Call luck by team

DAL +0.96 1st

DEN +0.91 2nd

MIN +0.89 3rd

CIN +0.76 4th

ATL +0.73 5th

LV +0.71 6th

LA +0.68 7th

PIT +0.34 8th

JAX +0.33 9th

WAS +0.30 10th

CAR +0.27 11th

CLE +0.23 12th

SF +0.15 13th

GB +0.12 14th

TEN +0.05 15th

DET +0.02 16th

TB 0.00 17th

ARI −0.03 18th

PHI −0.04 19th

LAC −0.12 20th

NYJ −0.12 21st

MIA −0.14 22nd

NO −0.23 23rd

HOU −0.36 24th

SEA −0.37 25th

KC −0.48 26th

IND −0.49 27th

BAL −0.69 28th

NE −0.86 29th

BUF −0.89 30th

CHI −1.14 31st

NYG −1.50 32nd

Referee crews

Flags per game in each crew’s games, and how the judgment calls leaned: share of a win a game toward the home team.

Referee	Games	Judgment flags per game	Pre-snap per game	Toward home team
Ron Torbert	17	7.4	5.4	−1.7%
Alex Kemp	17	7.4	5.3	+3.6%
Tra Blake	16	8.1	4.5	−7.5%
Brad Rogers	17	8.4	4.1	+3.2%
John Hussey	17	7.6	4.7	+1.0%
Land Clark	16	7.5	4.8	+2.5%
Shawn Smith	17	7.8	4.3	−7.5%
Bill Vinovich	18	6.7	4.9	−3.7%
Adrian Hill	17	6.4	4.9	+5.9%
Brad Allen	15	6.0	4.8	+5.1%
Clay Martin	17	6.6	4.2	−3.0%
Shawn Hochuli	17	6.9	3.9	−1.4%
Clete Blakeman	17	6.2	4.4	+1.7%
Carl Cheffers	17	6.3	3.8	−0.6%
Alan Eck	17	5.7	4.2	+5.7%
Craig Wrolstad	17	6.0	3.9	−0.5%
Scott Novak	16	5.4	4.3	−4.6%

All referees since 2019 · 2023 luck rankings · Expected wins