2023 NFL season · final · regular season

Referee calls, 2023: who they helped

Judgment calls helped the Jaguars most in 2023: +2.56 points a game, the calls that went their way minus the ones that didn’t. They hurt the Bears most: −2.57 a game. The Jets drew the most flags, 124.

Judgment calls are the flags an official has to judge: holding, pass interference, roughing and the like. Each is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. Week to week a team’s call luck barely repeats (correlation 0.06), which is what chance looks like. How calls are valued

#	Team	Call luck, pts per game	Judgment flags against	For	Pre-snap flags against
1	Jaguars	+2.56	37	65	46
2	Raiders	+1.75	43	66	32
3	Vikings	+1.44	47	68	42
4	Falcons	+1.23	54	62	30
5	Cardinals	+0.90	67	60	34
6	Steelers	+0.88	58	55	28
7	Bengals	+0.70	44	60	32
8	Broncos	+0.66	59	66	40
9	Cowboys	+0.64	70	66	45
10	Rams	+0.56	63	66	26
11	Buccaneers	+0.54	59	58	41
12	Packers	+0.45	61	58	43
13	Panthers	+0.42	57	61	46
14	Chargers	+0.38	53	59	26
15	Commanders	+0.33	54	64	33
16	Colts	+0.28	50	54	45
17	Eagles	+0.18	49	62	45
18	Saints	+0.16	62	59	34
19	Browns	−0.10	57	62	58
20	49ers	−0.38	63	59	38
21	Giants	−0.65	57	63	32
22	Patriots	−0.68	53	46	36
23	Ravens	−0.90	68	61	34
24	Seahawks	−0.91	66	56	44
25	Texans	−0.93	70	60	44
26	Dolphins	−0.97	58	48	39
27	Titans	−0.99	66	62	44
28	Chiefs	−1.04	63	45	33
29	Bills	−1.13	70	55	36
30	Lions	−1.27	66	52	31
31	Jets	−1.56	70	57	54
32	Bears	−2.57	58	37	41

Call luck by team

JAX +2.56 1st

LV +1.75 2nd

MIN +1.44 3rd

ATL +1.23 4th

ARI +0.90 5th

PIT +0.88 6th

CIN +0.70 7th

DEN +0.66 8th

DAL +0.64 9th

LA +0.56 10th

TB +0.54 11th

GB +0.45 12th

CAR +0.42 13th

LAC +0.38 14th

WAS +0.33 15th

IND +0.28 16th

PHI +0.18 17th

NO +0.16 18th

CLE −0.10 19th

SF −0.38 20th

NYG −0.65 21st

NE −0.68 22nd

BAL −0.90 23rd

SEA −0.91 24th

HOU −0.93 25th

MIA −0.97 26th

TEN −0.99 27th

KC −1.04 28th

BUF −1.13 29th

DET −1.27 30th

NYJ −1.56 31st

CHI −2.57 32nd

Referee crews

Flags per game in each crew’s games, and how the judgment calls leaned: points per game toward the home team.

Referee	Games	Judgment flags per game	Pre-snap per game	Toward home team, pts
Ron Torbert	17	7.4	5.4	−0.44
Alex Kemp	17	7.4	5.3	+1.22
Tra Blake	16	8.1	4.5	−1.17
Brad Rogers	17	8.4	4.1	+0.60
John Hussey	17	7.6	4.7	+0.84
Land Clark	16	7.5	4.8	+1.55
Shawn Smith	17	7.8	4.3	−0.85
Bill Vinovich	18	6.7	4.9	−0.86
Adrian Hill	17	6.4	4.9	+1.47
Brad Allen	15	6.0	4.8	+2.18
Clay Martin	17	6.6	4.2	−1.70
Shawn Hochuli	17	6.9	3.9	+0.01
Clete Blakeman	17	6.2	4.4	−0.07
Carl Cheffers	17	6.3	3.8	−1.34
Alan Eck	17	5.7	4.2	+1.09
Craig Wrolstad	17	6.0	3.9	+0.39
Scott Novak	16	5.4	4.3	−1.19

All referees since 2019 · 2023 luck rankings · Expected wins