luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Referee · 2019–2026

Alex Kemp: flags and calls

Alex Kemp’s crews have worked 121 games since 2019: 8.0 judgment flags a game, about the same as the league average of 7.4, and 4.7 pre-snap flags. Their judgment calls were worth +2.1% of a win a game to the home team (league: +0.9%), each weighted by the moment it came.

Season by season

SeasonGamesJudgment flags per gamePre-snapToward home, a game
2019159.34.8+4.5%
2020179.23.5−3.2%
2021177.75.1+5.3%
2022176.84.5+3.9%
2023177.45.3+3.6%
2024178.64.9+2.1%
2025187.54.5−1.1%
202637.34.7+1.2%

The calls that swung games most

By the change in win probability they caused.

  1. Illegal Use of Hands on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play · CIN at KC, 2024 Week 2 · 47 pts of win probability
  2. Defensive Holding on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 5 yards, wiping out the play · KC at NYJ, 2023 Week 4 · 35 pts of win probability
  3. Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play · CIN at KC, 2024 Week 2 · 31 pts of win probability
  4. Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Daijahn Anthony), 29 yards · CIN at KC, 2024 Week 2 · 29 pts of win probability
  5. Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play · DEN at KC, 2020 Week 13 · 26 pts of win probability
  6. Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Steven Nelson), 9 yards, wiping out the play · IND at PIT, 2020 Week 16 · 26 pts of win probability
  7. Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play · PHI at NYG, 2019 Week 17 · 26 pts of win probability
  8. Illegal Contact on the Bengals (Daijahn Anthony), 5 yards, wiping out the play · CIN at KC, 2024 Week 2 · 23 pts of win probability

Every game

WeekGameResultWinner wins the replayLuck index
2026 Week 4 Packers at Buccaneers GB 17–14 90% +10
2026 Week 3 Patriots at Jaguars JAX 35–6 93% +7
2026 Week 1 49ers vs Rams SF 27–7 89% +11
2025 AFC Championship Patriots at Broncos NE 10–7 84% +16
2025 Week 18 Browns at Bengals CLE 20–18 2% +98
2025 Week 17 Patriots at Jets NE 42–10 100% 0
2025 Week 16 Packers at Bears CHI 22–16 24% +76
2025 Week 14 Seahawks at Falcons SEA 37–9 80% +20
2025 Week 13 Giants at Patriots NE 33–15 93% +7
2025 Week 13 Bills at Steelers BUF 26–7 92% +8
2025 Week 12 Panthers at 49ers SF 20–9 79% +21
2025 Week 11 Lions at Eagles PHI 16–9 19% +81
2025 Week 10 Patriots at Buccaneers NE 28–23 71% +29
2025 Week 9 Chargers at Titans LAC 27–20 98% +2
2025 Week 7 Commanders at Cowboys DAL 44–22 78% +22
2025 Week 6 Rams at Ravens LA 17–3 83% +17
2025 Week 5 Raiders at Colts IND 40–6 86% +14
2025 Week 4 Seahawks at Cardinals SEA 23–20 92% +8
2025 Week 3 Texans at Jaguars JAX 17–10 83% +17
2025 Week 2 Eagles at Chiefs PHI 20–17 10% +90
2025 Week 1 Titans at Broncos DEN 20–12 87% +13
2024 Wild Card Steelers at Ravens BAL 28–14 97% +3
2024 Week 18 Jaguars at Colts IND 26–23 87% +13
2024 Week 17 Falcons at Commanders WAS 30–24 83% +17
2024 Week 16 Saints at Packers GB 34–0 99% +1
2024 Week 15 Dolphins at Texans HOU 20–12 86% +14
2024 Week 14 Falcons at Vikings MIN 42–21 83% +17
2024 Week 13 49ers at Bills BUF 35–10 98% +3
2024 Week 11 Browns at Saints NO 35–14 68% +32
2024 Week 10 Eagles at Cowboys PHI 34–6 99% +1
2024 Week 9 Patriots at Titans TEN 20–17 96% +4
2024 Week 8 Panthers at Broncos DEN 28–14 79% +21
2024 Week 7 Ravens at Buccaneers BAL 41–31 54% +46
2024 Week 6 Cardinals at Packers GB 34–13 82% +18
2024 Week 4 Seahawks at Lions DET 42–29 89% +11
2024 Week 3 Chargers at Steelers PIT 20–10 87% +13
2024 Week 2 Bengals at Chiefs KC 26–25 60% +40
2024 Week 1 Vikings at Giants MIN 28–6 97% +3
2023 Divisional round Packers at 49ers SF 24–21 69% +31
2023 Week 18 Bills at Dolphins BUF 21–14 52% +48
2023 Week 17 Jets at Browns CLE 37–20 27% +73
2023 Week 16 Packers at Panthers GB 33–30 63% +37
2023 Week 14 Buccaneers at Falcons TB 29–25 23% +77
2023 Week 13 49ers at Eagles SF 42–19 97% +3
2023 Week 12 Bears at Vikings CHI 12–10 43% +57
2023 Week 11 Cardinals at Texans HOU 21–16 75% +26
2023 Week 10 Commanders at Seahawks SEA 29–26 73% +27
2023 Week 9 Bills at Bengals CIN 24–18 30% +70
2023 Week 7 Packers at Broncos DEN 19–17 78% +22
2023 Week 6 Colts at Jaguars JAX 37–20 86% +14
2023 Week 5 Saints at Patriots NO 34–0 90% +10
2023 Week 4 Chiefs at Jets KC 23–20 79% +21
2023 Week 3 Cowboys at Cardinals ARI 28–16 79% +21
2023 Week 2 Seahawks at Lions SEA 37–31 67% +33
2023 Week 1 49ers at Steelers SF 30–7 71% +29
2022 Wild Card Seahawks at 49ers SF 41–23 83% +17
2022 Week 18 Panthers at Saints CAR 10–7 7% +93
2022 Week 17 Cardinals at Falcons ATL 20–19 43% +57
2022 Week 16 Eagles at Cowboys DAL 40–34 57% +43
2022 Week 15 49ers at Seahawks SF 21–13 88% +12
2022 Week 14 Jets at Bills BUF 20–12 98% +2
2022 Week 13 Broncos at Ravens BAL 10–9 49% +51
2022 Week 12 Patriots at Vikings MIN 33–26 21% +79
2022 Week 10 Commanders at Eagles WAS 32–21 49% +51
2022 Week 9 Panthers at Bengals CIN 42–21 100% 0
2022 Week 8 Dolphins at Lions MIA 31–27 51% +49
2022 Week 7 Chiefs at 49ers KC 44–23 94% +6
2022 Week 5 Giants vs Packers NYG 27–22 68% +32
2022 Week 4 Chargers at Texans LAC 34–24 88% +12
2022 Week 3 Bills at Dolphins MIA 21–19 61% +39
2022 Week 2 Colts at Jaguars JAX 24–0 97% +3
2022 Week 1 Saints at Falcons NO 27–26 65% +35
2021 Wild Card 49ers at Cowboys SF 23–17 87% +13
2021 Week 18 Patriots at Dolphins MIA 33–24 27% +73
2021 Week 17 Buccaneers at Jets TB 28–24 89% +11
2021 Week 16 Browns at Packers GB 24–22 46% +54
2021 Week 15 Texans at Jaguars HOU 30–16 31% +69
2021 Week 14 Cowboys at Washington DAL 27–20 79% +21
2021 Week 13 49ers at Seahawks SEA 30–23 2% +98
2021 Week 12 Titans at Patriots NE 36–13 85% +15
2021 Week 11 Dolphins at Jets MIA 24–17 46% +54
2021 Week 9 Falcons at Saints ATL 27–25 62% +38
2021 Week 8 Packers at Cardinals GB 24–21 33% +67
2021 Week 7 Bears at Buccaneers TB 38–3 99% +1
2021 Week 6 Rams at Giants LA 38–11 97% +3
2021 Week 5 Titans at Jaguars TEN 37–19 65% +35
2021 Week 4 Colts at Dolphins IND 27–17 88% +12
2021 Week 3 Panthers at Texans CAR 24–9 76% +24
2021 Week 1 Chargers at Washington LAC 20–16 89% +11
2020 Wild Card Bears at Saints NO 21–9 82% +18
2020 Week 17 Falcons at Buccaneers TB 44–27 98% +2
2020 Week 16 Colts at Steelers PIT 28–24 54% +46
2020 Week 15 Panthers at Packers GB 24–16 82% +18
2020 Week 14 Packers at Lions GB 31–24 87% +13
2020 Week 13 Broncos at Chiefs KC 22–16 89% +11
2020 Week 12 Chargers at Bills BUF 27–17 91% +9
2020 Week 11 Titans at Ravens TEN 30–24 77% +23
2020 Week 10 Washington at Lions DET 30–27 82% +18
2020 Week 9 Patriots at Jets NE 30–27 60% +40
2020 Week 8 Vikings at Packers MIN 28–22 74% +26
2020 Week 6 Texans at Titans TEN 42–36 56% +44
2020 Week 5 Buccaneers at Bears CHI 20–19 44% +56
2020 Week 4 Jaguars at Bengals CIN 33–25 70% +30
2020 Week 3 Rams at Bills BUF 35–32 22% +78
2020 Week 2 Vikings at Colts IND 28–11 77% +23
2020 Week 1 Bears at Lions CHI 27–23 24% +76
2019 Week 17 Eagles at Giants PHI 34–17 60% +40
2019 Week 16 Ravens at Browns BAL 31–15 88% +12
2019 Week 15 Patriots at Bengals NE 34–13 38% +62
2019 Week 13 Rams at Cardinals LA 34–7 97% +3
2019 Week 12 Panthers at Saints NO 34–31 83% +17
2019 Week 11 Texans at Ravens BAL 41–7 95% +5
2019 Week 10 Seahawks at 49ers SEA 27–24 47% +53
2019 Week 9 Vikings at Chiefs KC 26–23 55% +45
2019 Week 7 Raiders at Packers GB 42–24 36% +64
2019 Week 6 Titans at Broncos DEN 16–0 88% +12
2019 Week 5 Jaguars at Panthers CAR 34–27 44% +56
2019 Week 4 Washington at Giants NYG 24–3 73% +27
2019 Week 3 Falcons at Colts IND 27–24 69% +31
2019 Week 2 Browns at Jets CLE 23–3 98% +2
2019 Week 1 49ers at Buccaneers SF 31–17 58% +42