luckadjusted

Week 17 2025 · December 28, 2025

Patriots at Jets, Week 17 2025: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Jets 42–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 10 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.8 points to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 82% favorites.

Final

New England Patriots 42
New York Jets 10

December 28, 2025 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −12.5

Luck index 0 Patriots about even · 0 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 10, Jets win 0.

  1. 1 NE 48 NYJ 7
  2. 2 NE 34 NYJ 0
  3. 3 NE 37 NYJ 7
  4. 4 NE 27 NYJ 0
  5. 5 NE 33 NYJ 10
  6. 6 NE 36 NYJ 16
  7. 7 NE 38 NYJ 20
  8. 8 NE 34 NYJ 20
  9. 9 NE 23 NYJ 13
  10. 10 NE 12 NYJ 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 100% of them, Jets 0%. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 32.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+90.5%
Patriots by 9–167.4%
Patriots by 1–81.6%
Level after regulation0.1%
Jets by 1–80.4%
Jets by 9–160.0%
Jets by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 32. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 33.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • A. Borregales, 41 yds missed · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Brandon Stephens), 18 yardsJudgment calls · 20 flags in 5077 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +4% NE NE: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:25 The Jets fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% NYJ NYJ: Turnover
3 Q1 3:41 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Jets threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +2% NE NYJ: Field goal
4 Q1 1:57 The Patriots converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +3% NE NE: Touchdown
5 Q1 1:38 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Patriots, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
6 Q2 15:00 The Patriots converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +1% NE NE: Touchdown
7 Q2 10:41 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +2% NE NYJ: Field goal
8 Q2 3:03 The Patriots converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +3% NE NE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Justin Fields (NYJ QB), out (IR), replaced by b.cook · 1.4 pts
  • Mason Taylor (NYJ TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Azareye'h Thomas (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tony Adams (NYJ S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Will Campbell (NE T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Jared Wilson (NE OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kayshon Boutte (NE WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Mack Hollins (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Robert Spillane (NE LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Milton Williams (NE DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 100% · Jets 0%

Final margin
Patriots by 32
Luck in points
1.8 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 33.8
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 100% · Jets 0% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2025 games · Patriots · Jets

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