luckadjusted

Week 17 2025 · December 27, 2025

Texans at Chargers, Week 17 2025: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Chargers 20–16 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.1 points to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:30 left): the Texans converted 3rd & 1, worth 20 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 20
Los Angeles Chargers 16

December 27, 2025 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −1.5

Luck index +36 Texans lucky · −36 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 6, Chargers win 4.

  1. 1 HOU 23 LAC 0
  2. 2 HOU 41 LAC 24
  3. 3 HOU 29 LAC 17
  4. 4 HOU 41 LAC 33
  5. 5 HOU 29 LAC 25
  6. 6 HOU 19 LAC 17
  7. 7 HOU 18 LAC 20
  8. 8 HOU 23 LAC 30
  9. 9 HOU 13 LAC 25
  10. 10 HOU 10 LAC 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 64% of them, Chargers 36%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+17.8%
Texans by 9–1619.1%
Texans by 1–826.6%
Level after regulation2.5%
Chargers by 1–818.1%
Chargers by 9–169.8%
Chargers by 17+6.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 6.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 27 yds made · 100% expected
  • C. Dicker, 32 yds missed · 98% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 44 yds made · 85% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:30 The Texans converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +20% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:08 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% HOU LAC: Punt
3 Q2 8:54 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 53% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% LAC HOU: Punt
4 Q2 1:52 The Chargers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +12% LAC LAC: Turnover
5 Q2 1:12 The Chargers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% HOU LAC: Missed field goal
6 Q3 2:51 The Chargers converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +7% LAC LAC: Touchdown
7 Q4 14:56 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Daiyan Henley), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 2435 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +6% HOU HOU: Punt
8 Q4 2:32 Illegal Contact on the Chargers (Tarheeb Still), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1619 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +18% HOU HOU: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Alt (LAC T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jamaree Salyer (LAC OL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Denzel Perryman (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • R.J. Mickens (LAC S), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kimani Vidal (LAC RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Aireontae Ersery (HOU T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Trent Brown (HOU T), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 82% · Chargers 18%

Final margin
Texans by 4
Luck in points
2.2 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 6.2
Replay with same day's form
Texans 64% · Chargers 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2025 games · Texans · Chargers

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