luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 17 2025 · December 27, 2025

Texans at Chargers, Week 17 2025: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Chargers 20–16, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:32 left): Illegal Contact on the Chargers (Tarheeb Still), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 18 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 20
Los Angeles Chargers 16

December 27, 2025 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −1.5

Luck index +35 Texans lucky · −35 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 7, Chargers win 3.

  1. 1 HOU 43 LAC 17
  2. 2 HOU 30 LAC 10
  3. 3 HOU 36 LAC 21
  4. 4 HOU 35 LAC 24
  5. 5 HOU 28 LAC 20
  6. 6 HOU 24 LAC 20
  7. 7 HOU 24 LAC 22
  8. 8 HOU 28 LAC 31
  9. 9 HOU 15 LAC 23
  10. 10 HOU 7 LAC 25

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 65% of them, Chargers 35%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+19.5%
Texans by 9–1618.4%
Texans by 1–825.5%
Level after regulation2.3%
Chargers by 1–817.3%
Chargers by 9–1611.0%
Chargers by 17+6.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Texans by 4, without the luck Texans by 4.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 27 yds made · 100% expected
  • C. Dicker, 32 yds missed · 98% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 41 yds made · 89% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 44 yds made · 85% expected
  • Extra point missed · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 8 for 70 yards, Chargers 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:43 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Tremon Smith), 10 yards +2% LAC +0.9 pts
Q2 12:25 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Dalton Schultz), 15 yards +2% LAC +1.2 pts
Q2 9:48 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Damone Clark), 10 yards +2% LAC +0.9 pts
Q2 0:40 Tripping on the Texans (Denico Autry), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% LAC +1.8 pts
Q3 8:25 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Nico Collins), 10 yards +1% LAC +0.9 pts
Q3 5:17 Defensive Offside on the Texans (Will Anderson), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LAC +1.0 pts
Q4 14:56 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Daiyan Henley), 15 yards +7% HOU +2.2 pts
Q4 8:33 Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Da'Shawn Hand), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.2 pts
Q4 4:26 Illegal Contact on the Texans (Jalen Pitre), 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% LAC +1.5 pts
Q4 3:51 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Azeez Al-Shaair), 5 yards +5% LAC +1.4 pts
Q4 2:32 Illegal Contact on the Chargers (Tarheeb Still), 5 yards, wiping out the play +18% HOU +2.2 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:52 The Chargers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +7% LAC LAC: Turnover
2 Q2 1:12 The Chargers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +7% HOU LAC: Missed field goal
3 Q3 2:51 The Chargers converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +5% LAC LAC: Touchdown
4 Q4 14:56 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Daiyan Henley), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 2435 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +7% HOU HOU: Punt
5 Q4 12:24 The Chargers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% LAC LAC: Punt
6 Q4 4:26 Illegal Contact on the Texans (Jalen Pitre), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 10 flags in 3497 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +6% LAC LAC: Touchdown
7 Q4 3:51 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Azeez Al-Shaair), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 4917 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +5% LAC LAC: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:32 Illegal Contact on the Chargers (Tarheeb Still), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1619 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +18% HOU HOU: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Alt (LAC T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jamaree Salyer (LAC OL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Denzel Perryman (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • R.J. Mickens (LAC S), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kimani Vidal (LAC RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Aireontae Ersery (HOU T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Trent Brown (HOU T), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 79% · Chargers 21%

Final margin
Texans by 4
Luck in points
0.4 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 4.4
Replay with same day's form
Texans 65% · Chargers 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2025 games · Texans · Chargers

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