Week 17 2025 · December 28, 2025
Steelers at Browns, Week 17 2025: who deserved to win?
The Browns beat the Steelers 13–6, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Browns win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Browns.
Before kickoff the Steelers were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:29 left): the Steelers got away with an interception-worthy throw, worth 12 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Final
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 6 |
|---|---|
 Cleveland Browns | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +48 Browns lucky · −48 Steelers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Steelers win 5, Browns win 5.
- 1 PIT 26 CLE 3
- 2 PIT 20 CLE 6
- 3 PIT 27 CLE 16
- 4 PIT 28 CLE 21
- 5 PIT 10 CLE 7
- 6 PIT 16 CLE 18
- 7 PIT 15 CLE 19
- 8 PIT 13 CLE 22
- 9 PIT 3 CLE 17
- 10 PIT 14 CLE 34
Your call
Did the Browns earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Steelers win 48% of them, Browns 52%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Steelers by 17+ | 9.0% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 15.8% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 20.6% |
| Level after regulation | 6.7% |
| Browns by 1–8 | 22.7% |
| Browns by 9–16 | 15.8% |
| Browns by 17+ | 9.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- A. Szmyt, 50 yds made · 66% expected
- C. Boswell, 44 yds made · 81% expected
- C. Boswell, 40 yds made · 88% expected
- C. Boswell, 54 yds missed · 70% expected
- A. Szmyt, 33 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: Steelers 4 for 34 yards, Browns 6 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:26 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Marquez Valdes-Scantling), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% CLE +3.5 pts |
| Q1 4:00 | Taunting on the Browns (Rayshawn Jenkins), 15 yards | +4% PIT +1.8 pts |
| Q2 11:32 | False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PIT +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:17 | False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CLE +0.2 pts |
| Q3 11:17 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 9 yards, wiping out the play | +7% PIT +2.3 pts |
| Q3 10:53 | Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (Cameron Heyward), 15 yards | +4% CLE +2.1 pts |
| Q3 7:58 | False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% PIT +0.7 pts |
| Q4 12:53 | False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PIT +0.6 pts |
| Q4 9:55 | False Start on the Steelers, 4 yards · pre-snap | +4% CLE +0.9 pts |
| Q4 9:44 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 6 yards | +2% PIT +0.5 pts |
Steelers penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Browns’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:54 | The Browns converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +10% CLE | CLE: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 4:26 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Marquez Valdes-Scantling), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 7 flags in 4292 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 | +8% CLE | CLE: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q2 5:03 | The Browns were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws | +9% PIT | CLE: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 12:46 | The Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% PIT | PIT: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 2:06 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +8% PIT | PIT: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q4 12:59 | C. Boswell missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 72 of 87 from 45+ before | +9% CLE | PIT: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 9:55 | The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedFalse Start on the Steelers, 4 yardsPre-snap flags | +9% CLE | PIT: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 0:29 | The Steelers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws | +12% PIT | PIT: Turnover on downs |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jack Conklin (CLE T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- David Njoku (CLE TE), out · 0.5 pts
- Maliek Collins (CLE DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Ethan Pocic (CLE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Myles Harden (CLE CB), out · 0.2 pts
- Quinshon Judkins (CLE RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Broderick Jones (PIT T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- T.J. Watt (PIT LB), out · 0.7 pts
- James Pierre (PIT CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Isaac Seumalo (PIT G), out · 0.3 pts
- Brandin Echols (PIT CB), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Steelers 20% · Browns 80%
- Final margin
- Browns by 7
- Luck in points
- 1.4 for the Browns
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Browns by 5.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Steelers 48% · Browns 52% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2025 games · 
Steelers · 
Browns
More from Week 17 2025
- Cowboys at Commanders DAL 30–23 · replay 18% for the winner
- Lions at Vikings MIN 23–10 · replay 61% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs DEN 20–13 · replay 59% for the winner
- Texans at Chargers HOU 20–16 · replay 65% for the winner
- Ravens at Packers BAL 41–24 · replay 41% for the winner
- Cardinals at Bengals CIN 37–14 · replay 97% for the winner
- Jaguars at Colts JAX 23–17 · replay 39% for the winner
- Patriots at Jets NE 42–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Saints at Titans NO 34–26 · replay 98% for the winner
- Seahawks at Panthers SEA 27–10 · replay 64% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Dolphins MIA 20–17 · replay 64% for the winner
- Giants at Raiders NYG 34–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Eagles at Bills PHI 13–12 · replay 13% for the winner
- Bears at 49ers SF 42–38 · replay 76% for the winner
- Rams at Falcons ATL 27–24 · replay 43% for the winner