luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 17 2025 · December 25, 2025

Lions at Vikings, Week 17 2025: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Lions 23–10, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Lions had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Lions.

Before kickoff the Lions were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:10 left): the Lions converted 4th & 4, worth 13 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Detroit Lions 10
Minnesota Vikings 23

December 25, 2025 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Lions −7

Luck index +39 Vikings lucky · −39 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 4, Vikings win 6.

  1. 1 DET 27 MIN 10
  2. 2 DET 21 MIN 10
  3. 3 DET 23 MIN 17
  4. 4 DET 8 MIN 6
  5. 5 DET 21 MIN 24
  6. 6 DET 24 MIN 30
  7. 7 DET 3 MIN 12
  8. 8 DET 10 MIN 22
  9. 9 DET 3 MIN 19
  10. 10 DET 13 MIN 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 39% of them, Vikings 61%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+6.4%
Lions by 9–1613.1%
Lions by 1–818.6%
Level after regulation3.4%
Vikings by 1–825.1%
Vikings by 9–1618.5%
Vikings by 17+14.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.3 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 13, without the luck Vikings by 5.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Reichard, 52 yds made · 74% expected
  • W. Reichard, 56 yds made · 70% expected
  • J. Bates, 48 yds made · 78% expected
  • W. Reichard, 42 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 5 for 25 yards, Vikings 3 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:53 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.7 pts
Q1 9:58 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Rock Ya-Sin), 5 yards +2% MIN +0.8 pts
Q2 12:47 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +0.5 pts
Q2 12:21 False Start on the Vikings (Jalen Nailor), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.8 pts
Q2 1:05 Illegal Contact on the Lions (D.J. Reed), 5 yards +1% MIN +0.4 pts
Q3 11:18 False Start on the Lions (Giovanni Ricci), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% MIN +1.0 pts
Q3 7:57 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Rock Ya-Sin), 5 yards +1% MIN +0.7 pts
Q4 14:54 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% DET +1.5 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:46 The Lions fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% MIN DET: Turnover
2 Q2 10:22 The Lions converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +7% DET DET: Touchdown
3 Q2 6:12 The Lions converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +9% DET DET: Touchdown
4 Q2 3:16 The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +8% DET DET: Touchdown
5 Q2 1:10 The Lions converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +13% DET DET: Touchdown
6 Q3 3:07 W. Reichard made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 22 of 28 from 45+ before +9% MIN MIN: Field goal
7 Q4 15:00 The Lions fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% MIN DET: Punt
8 Q4 7:32 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +9% DET MIN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brian O'Neill (MIN T), out · 1.1 pts
  • T.J. Hockenson (MIN TE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Ryan Kelly (MIN C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Josh Metellus (MIN S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jonathan Greenard (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Taylor Decker (DET T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Sam LaPorta (DET TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Brian Branch (DET DB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Brock Wright (DET TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Trystan Colon (DET OL), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 23% · Vikings 77%

Final margin
Vikings by 13
Luck in points
7.3 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 5.7
Replay with same day's form
Lions 39% · Vikings 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2025 games · Lions · Vikings

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