Week 17 2025 · December 28, 2025
Saints at Titans, Week 17 2025: who deserved to win?
The Saints beat the Titans 34–26, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 10 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Titans.
An off day for the Titans: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Saints they would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 2%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Saints were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:02 left): Return touchdown by the Saints, worth 28 points of win probability to the Saints.
Final
 New Orleans Saints | 34 |
|---|---|
 Tennessee Titans | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Saints about even · −2 Titans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Saints win 10, Titans win 0.
- 1 NO 41 TEN 0
- 2 NO 41 TEN 10
- 3 NO 35 TEN 7
- 4 NO 37 TEN 14
- 5 NO 30 TEN 10
- 6 NO 20 TEN 3
- 7 NO 30 TEN 16
- 8 NO 14 TEN 3
- 9 NO 34 TEN 27
- 10 NO 27 TEN 24
Your call
Did the Saints earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Titans
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Saints they would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 2%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
36 points apart for the Titans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saints offenseEPA per play gained | +0.41 | +0.03 | better by 0.38 |
| Saints defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.05 | +0.12 | better by 0.16 |
| Titans offenseEPA per play gained | −0.05 | −0.02 | worse by 0.03 |
| Titans defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.41 | +0.14 | worse by 0.27 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Saints win 98% of them, Titans 2%. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Saints by 17+ | 77.9% |
| Saints by 9–16 | 13.7% |
| Saints by 1–8 | 5.9% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 1.6% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 0.5% |
| Titans by 17+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Slye, 50 yds made · 65% expected
- C. Smyth, 43 yds missed · 81% expected
- J. Slye, 38 yds made · 88% expected
- C. Smyth, 56 yds made · 58% expected
- J. Slye, 28 yds made · 96% expected
- C. Smyth, 57 yds made · 58% expected
- J. Slye, 58 yds made · 56% expected
Penalties: Saints 6 for 84 yards, Titans 4 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 5:58 | False Start on the Saints (Kevin Austin), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEN +1.4 pts |
| Q2 5:53 | Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards | +2% NO +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:29 | Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards | +2% NO +1.5 pts |
| Q2 1:12 | False Start on the Titans (Tyjae Spears), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NO +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:05 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Justin Reid), 50 yards | +14% TEN +4.2 pts |
| Q2 0:13 | Offensive Holding on the Saints (Chris Rumph), 10 yards | +3% TEN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 5:25 | Offensive Holding on the Saints, 9 yards, wiping out the play | +7% TEN +1.8 pts |
| Q3 4:59 | Illegal Shift on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +9% TEN +2.0 pts |
| Q4 13:26 | Offensive Holding on the Titans (Chimere Dike), 10 yards | +2% NO +0.9 pts |
| Q4 12:09 | False Start on the Saints (Moliki Matavao), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% TEN +0.7 pts |
Saints penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Titans’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 88%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:41 | C. Smyth missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him | +13% TEN | NO: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 4:02 | The Titans fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the SaintsSpecial teams | +28% NO | TEN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 1:05 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Justin Reid), 50 yardsJudgment calls · 15 flags in 7635 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 | +14% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 5:25 | Offensive Holding on the Saints, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% TEN | TEN: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 4:59 | Illegal Shift on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +9% TEN | TEN: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 15:00 | The Titans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +9% TEN | TEN: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 12:55 | J. Slye made a 58-yard field goalKicks · 56% expected for him, 56 of 84 from 45+ before | +6% TEN | TEN: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 5:46 | The Titans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws | +15% TEN | TEN: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Xavier Woods (TEN S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Marcus Harris (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Cesar Ruiz (NO C), out · 0.5 pts
- Bryan Bresee (NO DT), out · 0.4 pts
- Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out · 0.4 pts
- Devaughn Vele (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Saints 97% · Titans 3%
- Final margin
- Saints by 8
- Luck in points
- 7.7 for the Titans
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Saints by 15.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Saints 98% · Titans 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2025 games · 
Saints · 
Titans
More from Week 17 2025
- Cowboys at Commanders DAL 30–23 · replay 18% for the winner
- Lions at Vikings MIN 23–10 · replay 61% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs DEN 20–13 · replay 59% for the winner
- Texans at Chargers HOU 20–16 · replay 65% for the winner
- Ravens at Packers BAL 41–24 · replay 41% for the winner
- Cardinals at Bengals CIN 37–14 · replay 97% for the winner
- Jaguars at Colts JAX 23–17 · replay 39% for the winner
- Patriots at Jets NE 42–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Steelers at Browns CLE 13–6 · replay 52% for the winner
- Seahawks at Panthers SEA 27–10 · replay 64% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Dolphins MIA 20–17 · replay 64% for the winner
- Giants at Raiders NYG 34–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Eagles at Bills PHI 13–12 · replay 13% for the winner
- Bears at 49ers SF 42–38 · replay 76% for the winner
- Rams at Falcons ATL 27–24 · replay 43% for the winner