luckadjusted

Week 17 2025 · December 28, 2025

Saints at Titans, Week 17 2025: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Titans 34–26, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 9 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.8 points to the Titans.

An off day for the Titans: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Saints they would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Saints were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:02 left): Return touchdown by the Saints, worth 28 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

New Orleans Saints 34
Tennessee Titans 26

December 28, 2025 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Saints −1.5

Luck index +6 Saints about even · −6 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 9, Titans win 1.

  1. 1 NO 37 TEN 0
  2. 2 NO 34 TEN 7
  3. 3 NO 35 TEN 12
  4. 4 NO 23 TEN 3
  5. 5 NO 24 TEN 7
  6. 6 NO 17 TEN 3
  7. 7 NO 28 TEN 17
  8. 8 NO 17 TEN 10
  9. 9 NO 13 TEN 10
  10. 10 NO 3 TEN 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Titans

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Saints they would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%.

32 points apart for the Titans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Saints offenseEPA per play gained +0.41 +0.03 better by 0.38
Saints defenseEPA per play allowed −0.05 +0.12 better by 0.16
Titans offenseEPA per play gained −0.05 −0.02 worse by 0.03
Titans defenseEPA per play allowed +0.41 +0.14 worse by 0.27

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 94% of them, Titans 6%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+64.0%
Saints by 9–1620.1%
Saints by 1–89.9%
Level after regulation0.7%
Titans by 1–84.0%
Titans by 9–161.1%
Titans by 17+0.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 17.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 50 yds made · 66% expected
  • C. Smyth, 43 yds missed · 80% expected
  • J. Slye, 38 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. Smyth, 56 yds made · 56% expected
  • J. Slye, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Smyth, 57 yds made · 55% expected
  • J. Slye, 58 yds made · 52% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 88%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:41 C. Smyth missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him +13% TEN NO: Punt
2 Q2 13:08 The Titans converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +16% TEN TEN: Touchdown
3 Q2 4:02 The Titans fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the SaintsSpecial teams +28% NO TEN: Touchdown
4 Q2 1:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Justin Reid), 50 yardsJudgment calls · 15 flags in 7635 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +14% TEN TEN: Touchdown
5 Q4 5:46 The Titans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% TEN TEN: Punt
6 Q4 4:02 The Saints converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +10% NO NO: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:44 The Titans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% TEN TEN: End of game
8 Q4 0:18 The Titans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% TEN TEN: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Xavier Woods (TEN S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Harris (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cesar Ruiz (NO C), out · 0.5 pts
  • Bryan Bresee (NO DT), out · 0.4 pts
  • Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Devaughn Vele (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 97% · Titans 3%

Final margin
Saints by 8
Luck in points
9.3 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 17.3
Replay with same day's form
Saints 94% · Titans 6% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2025 games · Saints · Titans

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