luckadjusted

Week 17 2025 · December 28, 2025

Eagles at Bills, Week 17 2025: who deserved to win?

The Eagles stole one. They beat the Bills 13–12, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 2.5 points to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Bills were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:08 left): the Bills converted 4th & 1, worth 28 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 13
Buffalo Bills 12

December 28, 2025 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −3

Luck index +84 Eagles very lucky · −84 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 2, Bills win 8.

  1. 1 PHI 26 BUF 13
  2. 2 PHI 12 BUF 9
  3. 3 PHI 17 BUF 20
  4. 4 PHI 19 BUF 24
  5. 5 PHI 27 BUF 34
  6. 6 PHI 13 BUF 23
  7. 7 PHI 6 BUF 20
  8. 8 PHI 18 BUF 35
  9. 9 PHI 10 BUF 31
  10. 10 PHI 9 BUF 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 16% of them, Bills 84%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+1.1%
Eagles by 9–164.4%
Eagles by 1–89.9%
Level after regulation1.3%
Bills by 1–825.3%
Bills by 9–1621.6%
Bills by 17+36.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 1.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 47 yds made · 72% expected
  • J. Elliott, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:13 The Bills fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% PHI BUF: Punt
2 Q2 14:24 The Bills converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +5% BUF BUF: Punt
3 Q2 8:14 The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +5% PHI PHI: Field goal
4 Q3 2:25 The Bills were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +8% PHI BUF: Punt
5 Q4 1:51 The Bills converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +13% BUF BUF: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:23 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +9% PHI BUF: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:08 The Bills converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +28% BUF BUF: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:05 The Bills’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +27% PHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jordan Poyer (BUF S), out · 0.5 pts
  • Keon Coleman (BUF WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • DaQuan Jones (BUF DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Matt Prater (BUF K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Andrew Mukuba (PHI S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Nakobe Dean (PHI LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 46% · Bills 54%

Final margin
Eagles by 1
Luck in points
2.4 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 16% · Bills 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2025 games · Eagles · Bills

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