luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 17 2025 · December 28, 2025

Eagles at Bills, Week 17 2025: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Bills 13–12, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Bills were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:05 left): the Bills’ two-point try failed, worth 27 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 13
Buffalo Bills 12

December 28, 2025 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −3

Luck index +88 Eagles very lucky · −88 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 1, Bills win 9.

  1. 1 PHI 17 BUF 10
  2. 2 PHI 17 BUF 19
  3. 3 PHI 23 BUF 26
  4. 4 PHI 3 BUF 10
  5. 5 PHI 29 BUF 38
  6. 6 PHI 15 BUF 27
  7. 7 PHI 14 BUF 29
  8. 8 PHI 7 BUF 26
  9. 9 PHI 16 BUF 38
  10. 10 PHI 13 BUF 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 12% of them, Bills 88%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+0.8%
Eagles by 9–162.9%
Eagles by 1–88.8%
Level after regulation1.8%
Bills by 1–820.9%
Bills by 9–1623.7%
Bills by 17+41.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.1 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 1, without the luck Bills by 3.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 47 yds made · 72% expected
  • J. Elliott, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 3 for 36 yards, Bills 4 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Illegal Formation on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.5 pts
Q1 10:29 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Marcus Epps), 5 yards +4% BUF +1.4 pts
Q2 13:01 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +2% PHI +0.9 pts
Q2 11:07 Fair Catch Interference on the Bills (Sam Franklin), 15 yards +1% PHI +1.0 pts
Q2 7:01 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Matt Milano), 5 yards +2% PHI +0.8 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Joe Andreessen), 10 yards +2% PHI +0.9 pts
Q3 5:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Quinyon Mitchell), 26 yards +3% BUF +2.7 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:13 The Bills fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% PHI BUF: Punt
2 Q2 10:12 The Eagles converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +5% PHI PHI: Field goal
3 Q2 8:14 The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% PHI PHI: Field goal
4 Q3 2:25 The Bills were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +8% PHI BUF: Punt
5 Q4 1:51 The Bills converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +13% BUF BUF: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:23 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +9% PHI BUF: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:08 The Bills converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +14% BUF BUF: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:05 The Bills’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +27% PHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jordan Poyer (BUF S), out · 0.5 pts
  • Keon Coleman (BUF WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • DaQuan Jones (BUF DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Matt Prater (BUF K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Andrew Mukuba (PHI S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Nakobe Dean (PHI LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 31% · Bills 69%

Final margin
Eagles by 1
Luck in points
4.1 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 3.1
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 12% · Bills 88% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2025 games · Eagles · Bills

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