luckadjusted

Week 17 2025 · December 28, 2025

Cardinals at Bengals, Week 17 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Cardinals 37–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:04 left): the Bengals converted 3rd & 10, worth 12 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 14
Cincinnati Bengals 37

December 28, 2025 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −7

Luck index +4 Bengals about even · −4 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 0, Bengals win 10.

  1. 1 ARI 10 CIN 12
  2. 2 ARI 14 CIN 19
  3. 3 ARI 13 CIN 20
  4. 4 ARI 13 CIN 23
  5. 5 ARI 17 CIN 31
  6. 6 ARI 3 CIN 20
  7. 7 ARI 6 CIN 26
  8. 8 ARI 20 CIN 43
  9. 9 ARI 7 CIN 34
  10. 10 ARI 6 CIN 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 4% of them, Bengals 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+0.1%
Cardinals by 9–160.5%
Cardinals by 1–82.9%
Level after regulation1.1%
Bengals by 1–814.8%
Bengals by 9–1622.4%
Bengals by 17+58.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bengals by 23. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 17.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 57 yds made · 60% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:11 The Bengals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:04 The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +12% CIN CIN: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:23 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% ARI ARI: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:50 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +2% ARI CIN: Touchdown
5 Q1 0:08 The Bengals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +3% CIN CIN: Touchdown
6 Q2 10:59 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +7% ARI CIN: Punt
7 Q2 3:25 E. McPherson made 57-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 51 of 71 from 45+ before +5% CIN CIN: Touchdown
8 Q3 12:43 The Bengals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +2% CIN CIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cam Taylor-Britt (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Joseph Ossai (CIN DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kris Jenkins (CIN DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Budda Baker (ARI S), out · 0.9 pts
  • Garrett Williams (ARI CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jonah Williams (ARI OL), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Will Hernandez (ARI OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Evan Brown (ARI OL), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 0% · Bengals 100%

Final margin
Bengals by 23
Luck in points
5.3 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 17.7
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 4% · Bengals 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2025 games · Cardinals · Bengals

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