luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 17 2025 · December 27, 2025

Ravens at Packers, Week 17 2025: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Packers 41–24, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Ravens win 4 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 57% favorites.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 41
Green Bay Packers 24

December 27, 2025 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −2.5

Luck index +59 Ravens lucky · −59 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 4, Packers win 6.

  1. 1 BAL 34 GB 17
  2. 2 BAL 26 GB 17
  3. 3 BAL 17 GB 13
  4. 4 BAL 16 GB 14
  5. 5 BAL 27 GB 29
  6. 6 BAL 19 GB 24
  7. 7 BAL 19 GB 27
  8. 8 BAL 23 GB 34
  9. 9 BAL 26 GB 42
  10. 10 BAL 17 GB 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 41% of them, Packers 59%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+5.3%
Ravens by 9–1611.8%
Ravens by 1–822.0%
Level after regulation3.1%
Packers by 1–828.6%
Packers by 9–1617.5%
Packers by 17+11.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.8 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 17, without the luck Ravens by 9.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Loop, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • T. Loop, 34 yds made · 92% expected
  • B. McManus, 24 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 6 for 45 yards, Packers 5 for 38 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:58 Illegal Formation on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +1.1 pts
Q1 6:16 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.8 pts
Q1 6:04 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.3 pts
Q1 1:17 False Start on the Ravens (Patrick Ricard), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.6 pts
Q2 2:21 Face Mask on the Ravens (Alohi Gilman), 15 yards +3% GB +1.7 pts
Q2 0:37 Illegal Shift on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% GB +1.8 pts
Q2 0:30 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Evan Williams), 15 yards +4% BAL +1.8 pts
Q3 5:01 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 7 yards, wiping out the play +5% BAL +1.5 pts
Q3 3:58 Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Dre'Mont Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +1.1 pts
Q3 2:02 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Carl Jones), 10 yards +2% GB +0.7 pts
Q4 3:43 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Packers (Karl Brooks), 6 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +2.0 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 12:14 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +5% BAL GB: Turnover on downs
2 Q2 11:25 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +7% BAL GB: Turnover
3 Q2 6:27 The Packers fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% BAL GB: Touchdown
4 Q3 11:51 The Packers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% GB GB: Field goal
5 Q3 5:01 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 7 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q4 13:41 The Ravens converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +5% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q4 10:14 The Ravens converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
8 Q4 7:02 The Packers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +7% BAL GB: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jordan Love (GB QB), out, replaced by m.willis · 5.6 pts
  • Micah Parsons (GB DL), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Zach Tom (GB OL), out · 0.6 pts
  • Elgton Jenkins (GB C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Devonte Wyatt (GB DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by t.huntley · 7.9 pts
  • Teddye Buchanan (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 99% · Packers 1%

Final margin
Ravens by 17
Luck in points
7.8 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 9.2
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 41% · Packers 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2025 games · Ravens · Packers

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