luckadjusted

Week 17 2025 · December 27, 2025

Ravens at Packers, Week 17 2025: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Packers 41–24, but the Packers played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 4.0 points to the Ravens.

Before kickoff the Packers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 2:44 left): the Packers converted 3rd & 2, worth 11 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 41
Green Bay Packers 24

December 27, 2025 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −2.5

Luck index +67 Ravens very lucky · −67 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 3, Packers win 7.

  1. 1 BAL 34 GB 19
  2. 2 BAL 23 GB 17
  3. 3 BAL 23 GB 20
  4. 4 BAL 22 GB 24
  5. 5 BAL 27 GB 31
  6. 6 BAL 17 GB 24
  7. 7 BAL 21 GB 31
  8. 8 BAL 7 GB 21
  9. 9 BAL 19 GB 37
  10. 10 BAL 14 GB 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 33% of them, Packers 67%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+4.2%
Ravens by 9–168.3%
Ravens by 1–819.9%
Level after regulation2.7%
Packers by 1–826.7%
Packers by 9–1621.9%
Packers by 17+16.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 17. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 9.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Loop, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • T. Loop, 34 yds made · 92% expected
  • B. McManus, 24 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:25 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +7% BAL GB: Turnover
2 Q2 6:27 The Packers fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% BAL GB: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:24 R. Ali dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 8 catchable balls before this +5% GB BAL: Touchdown
4 Q3 13:37 The Packers converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +5% GB GB: Field goal
5 Q3 5:01 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 7 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q3 2:44 The Packers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +11% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q4 10:14 The Ravens converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% BAL BAL: Touchdown
8 Q4 7:02 The Packers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% BAL GB: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jordan Love (GB QB), out, replaced by m.willis · 5.6 pts
  • Micah Parsons (GB DL), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Zach Tom (GB OL), out · 0.6 pts
  • Elgton Jenkins (GB C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Devonte Wyatt (GB DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by t.huntley · 7.9 pts
  • Teddye Buchanan (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 97% · Packers 3%

Final margin
Ravens by 17
Luck in points
7.7 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 9.3
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 33% · Packers 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2025 games · Ravens · Packers

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