luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 17 2025 · December 28, 2025

Seahawks at Panthers, Week 17 2025: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Panthers 27–10, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:26 left): the Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 9 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 27
Carolina Panthers 10

December 28, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Seahawks −6.5

Luck index +36 Seahawks lucky · −36 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 6, Panthers win 4.

  1. 1 SEA 27 CAR 6
  2. 2 SEA 22 CAR 7
  3. 3 SEA 34 CAR 23
  4. 4 SEA 14 CAR 6
  5. 5 SEA 17 CAR 13
  6. 6 SEA 32 CAR 29
  7. 7 SEA 26 CAR 28
  8. 8 SEA 7 CAR 13
  9. 9 SEA 7 CAR 16
  10. 10 SEA 10 CAR 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 64% of them, Panthers 36%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+15.2%
Seahawks by 9–1621.6%
Seahawks by 1–826.6%
Level after regulation2.6%
Panthers by 1–820.8%
Panthers by 9–169.1%
Panthers by 17+3.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.3 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 17, without the luck Seahawks by 3.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 48 yds made · 80% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Myers, 30 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 4 for 40 yards, Panthers 3 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:41 Intentional Grounding on the Seahawks (Sam Darnold), 21 yards +4% CAR +1.8 pts
Q1 5:13 Encroachment on the Panthers (LaBryan Ray), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% SEA +0.8 pts
Q2 13:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Devon Witherspoon), 9 yards +3% CAR +1.3 pts
Q3 15:00 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Panthers (Ryan Fitzgerald), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA 0.0 pts
Q4 10:03 Face Mask on the Panthers (Jaycee Horn), 15 yards +3% SEA +1.5 pts
Q4 10:03 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.2 pts
Q4 5:36 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA 0.0 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:07 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +9% SEA SEA: Field goal
2 Q1 5:13 Encroachment on the Panthers (LaBryan Ray), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 1206 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304 +6% SEA SEA: Field goal
3 Q2 7:00 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% SEA CAR: Field goal
4 Q2 5:33 The Seahawks fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% SEA SEA: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 0:26 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +9% CAR SEA: Turnover
6 Q3 12:06 The Panthers fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% SEA CAR: Turnover
7 Q3 10:35 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% SEA SEA: Touchdown
8 Q3 8:49 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +7% SEA SEA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tershawn Wharton (CAR DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Trevin Wallace (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Charles Cross (SEA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Coby Bryant (SEA S), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 74% · Panthers 26%

Final margin
Seahawks by 17
Luck in points
13.3 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 3.7
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 64% · Panthers 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2025 games · Seahawks · Panthers

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