luckadjusted

Week 17 2025 · December 28, 2025

Giants at Raiders, Week 17 2025: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Raiders 34–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Giants win 9 of 10. The Raiders had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 1.6 points to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Giants were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 4:11 left): the Raiders converted 3rd & 6, worth 9 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

New York Giants 34
Las Vegas Raiders 10

December 28, 2025 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Giants −3

Luck index +10 Giants about even · −10 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 9, Raiders win 1.

  1. 1 NYG 26 LV 0
  2. 2 NYG 27 LV 7
  3. 3 NYG 27 LV 10
  4. 4 NYG 24 LV 9
  5. 5 NYG 17 LV 5
  6. 6 NYG 21 LV 11
  7. 7 NYG 20 LV 13
  8. 8 NYG 21 LV 17
  9. 9 NYG 9 LV 7
  10. 10 NYG 17 LV 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 90% of them, Raiders 10%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+41.2%
Giants by 9–1627.2%
Giants by 1–821.4%
Level after regulation1.4%
Raiders by 1–87.0%
Raiders by 9–161.7%
Raiders by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Giants by 24. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Giants by 22.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 42 yds made · 87% expected
  • B. Sauls, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. Sauls, 23 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:36 The Giants converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% NYG NYG: Punt
2 Q1 5:21 The Raiders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +7% LV LV: Turnover
3 Q1 4:11 The Raiders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +9% LV LV: Turnover
4 Q2 8:46 The Giants converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +5% NYG NYG: Touchdown
5 Q2 4:42 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% NYG NYG: Field goal
6 Q3 4:23 The Raiders converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% LV LV: Touchdown
7 Q3 0:36 The Raiders converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% LV LV: Touchdown
8 Q3 0:31 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Giants, 15 yardsJudgment callsReturn touchdown by the GiantsSpecial teams +7% NYG LV: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Maxx Crosby (LV DE), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Brock Bowers (LV TE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Jeremy Chinn (LV S), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jordan Meredith (LV C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Kyu Blu Kelly (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jackson Powers-Johnson (LV G), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Andrew Thomas (NYG T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Theo Johnson (NYG TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Cordale Flott (NYG CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • John Michael Schmitz (NYG C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tyler Nubin (NYG S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kayvon Thibodeaux (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 100% · Raiders 0%

Final margin
Giants by 24
Luck in points
1.5 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 22.5
Replay with same day's form
Giants 90% · Raiders 10% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2025 games · Giants · Raiders

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