2025 season · final

Las Vegas Raiders, 2025: game by game

The Raiders went 3–14 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.8 wins. Luck cost them 3.8: the unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–5.

Every game

How often the Raiders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Patriots	W 20–13	90%	+10
Week 2	vs Chargers	L 9–20	25%	−25
Week 3	@ Commanders	L 24–41	19%	−19
Week 4	vs Bears	L 24–25	82%	−82
Week 5	@ Colts	L 6–40	28%	−28
Week 6	vs Titans	W 20–10	93%	+7
Week 7	@ Chiefs	L 0–31	1%	−1
Week 9	vs Jaguars	L 29–30	77%	−77
Week 10	@ Broncos	L 7–10	49%	−49
Week 11	vs Cowboys	L 16–33	6%	−6
Week 12	vs Browns	L 10–24	42%	−42
Week 13	@ Chargers	L 14–31	10%	−10
Week 14	vs Broncos	L 17–24	28%	−28
Week 15	@ Eagles	L 0–31	1%	−1
Week 16	@ Texans	L 21–23	61%	−61
Week 17	vs Giants	L 10–34	10%	−10
Week 18	vs Chiefs	W 14–12	55%	+45

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +10 @ NE

Wk 2 −25 vs LAC

Wk 3 −19 @ WAS

Wk 4 −82 vs CHI

Wk 5 −28 @ IND

Wk 6 +7 vs TEN

Wk 7 −1 @ KC

Wk 9 −77 vs JAX

Wk 10 −49 @ DEN

Wk 11 −6 vs DAL

Wk 12 −42 vs CLE

Wk 13 −10 @ LAC

Wk 14 −28 vs DEN

Wk 15 −1 @ PHI

Wk 16 −61 @ HOU

Wk 17 −10 vs NYG

Wk 18 +45 vs KC

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Raiders’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Injuries	+10.8	+0.64
Judgment calls	−1.2	−0.07
Rest	−3.7	−0.22
Drops	−6.9	−0.41
Kicks	−18.4	−1.08
3rd & 4th downs	−18.5	−1.09