2025 season · final

Las Vegas Raiders, 2025: game by game

The Raiders went 3–14 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.6 wins. Luck cost them 3.6: the 2nd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–5.

Every game

How often the Raiders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Patriots	W 20–13	90%	+10
Week 2	vs Chargers	L 9–20	24%	−24
Week 3	@ Commanders	L 24–41	10%	−10
Week 4	vs Bears	L 24–25	82%	−82
Week 5	@ Colts	L 6–40	14%	−14
Week 6	vs Titans	W 20–10	94%	+6
Week 7	@ Chiefs	L 0–31	2%	−2
Week 9	vs Jaguars	L 29–30	77%	−77
Week 10	@ Broncos	L 7–10	55%	−55
Week 11	vs Cowboys	L 16–33	6%	−6
Week 12	vs Browns	L 10–24	62%	−62
Week 13	@ Chargers	L 14–31	10%	−10
Week 14	vs Broncos	L 17–24	27%	−27
Week 15	@ Eagles	L 0–31	0%	0
Week 16	@ Texans	L 21–23	47%	−47
Week 17	vs Giants	L 10–34	4%	−4
Week 18	vs Chiefs	W 14–12	54%	+46

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +10 @ NE

Wk 2 −24 vs LAC

Wk 3 −10 @ WAS

Wk 4 −82 vs CHI

Wk 5 −14 @ IND

Wk 6 +6 vs TEN

Wk 7 −2 @ KC

Wk 9 −77 vs JAX

Wk 10 −55 @ DEN

Wk 11 −6 vs DAL

Wk 12 −62 vs CLE

Wk 13 −10 @ LAC

Wk 14 −27 vs DEN

Wk 15 0 @ PHI

Wk 16 −47 @ HOU

Wk 17 −4 vs NYG

Wk 18 +46 vs KC

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Raiders’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Injuries	+0.28	+8.0
Fumble bounces	+0.09	+0.6
Judgment calls	+0.05	−0.1
Rest	−0.09	−3.7
Drops	−0.21	−6.0
3rd & 4th downs	−0.30	−17.0
Kicks	−0.51	−19.7