Week 10 2025 · November 6, 2025
Raiders at Broncos, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
The Broncos beat the Raiders 10–7, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Broncos win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 17 points of win probability to the Broncos.
The Broncos won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 76% of the time; with this day’s form, 45%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Broncos were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 9:13 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Dont'e Thornton), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 21 points of win probability to the Broncos.
Final
 Las Vegas Raiders | 7 |
|---|---|
 Denver Broncos | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +55 Broncos lucky · −55 Raiders
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Raiders win 5, Broncos win 5.
- 1 LV 24 DEN 6
- 2 LV 26 DEN 13
- 3 LV 26 DEN 17
- 4 LV 29 DEN 24
- 5 LV 9 DEN 7
- 6 LV 14 DEN 16
- 7 LV 13 DEN 17
- 8 LV 12 DEN 20
- 9 LV 20 DEN 33
- 10 LV 14 DEN 33
Your call
Did the Broncos earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Broncos won on an off day
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 76% of the time; with this day’s form, 45%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
30 points apart for the Broncos: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders offenseEPA per play gained | −0.29 | +0.03 | worse by 0.32 |
| Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.20 | +0.11 | better by 0.32 |
| Broncos offenseEPA per play gained | −0.20 | +0.10 | worse by 0.30 |
| Broncos defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.29 | +0.02 | better by 0.30 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Raiders win 55% of them, Broncos 45%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Raiders by 17+ | 10.2% |
| Raiders by 9–16 | 16.5% |
| Raiders by 1–8 | 22.8% |
| Level after regulation | 6.1% |
| Broncos by 1–8 | 20.3% |
| Broncos by 9–16 | 15.3% |
| Broncos by 17+ | 8.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- W. Lutz, 59 yds missed · 56% expected
- W. Lutz, 32 yds made · 94% expected
- D. Carlson, 48 yds missed · 74% expected
Penalties: Raiders 11 for 83 yards, Broncos 11 for 78 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:03 | False Start on the Raiders (Michael Mayer), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% DEN +0.7 pts |
| Q1 1:40 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Darnay Holmes), 10 yards | +2% DEN +0.7 pts |
| Q1 0:21 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Jack Bech), 10 yards | +3% DEN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 14:31 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Marcedes Lewis), 10 yards | +3% LV +1.1 pts |
| Q2 12:18 | Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LV +0.5 pts |
| Q2 9:59 | Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Jonathon Cooper), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LV +0.9 pts |
| Q2 9:13 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Dont'e Thornton), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +21% DEN +7.1 pts |
| Q2 7:46 | Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Broncos (JL Skinner), 5 yards | +1% LV +0.3 pts |
| Q2 7:40 | Illegal Touch Pass on the Raiders (Tre Tucker), 0 yards | 0% DEN 0.0 pts |
| Q2 5:18 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Adam Trautman), 10 yards | +2% LV +1.2 pts |
| Q2 1:27 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Pat Bryant), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +9% LV +1.7 pts |
| Q2 0:58 | False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LV +0.7 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Pat Bryant), 8 yards | +1% LV +0.6 pts |
| Q3 14:54 | False Start on the Broncos (Marcedes Lewis), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LV +0.9 pts |
| Q3 14:03 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Tristin McCollum), 10 yards | +4% DEN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 7:15 | False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | +8% LV +0.8 pts |
| Q3 4:41 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Troy Franklin), 10 yards | +6% LV +0.9 pts |
| Q3 2:25 | Intentional Grounding on the Raiders (Geno Smith), 13 yards | +4% DEN +0.7 pts |
| Q4 13:56 | Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Raiders (Decamerion Richardson), 5 yards | +2% DEN +0.4 pts |
| Q4 13:01 | Illegal Blindside Block on the Raiders (Dylan Laube), 10 yards | +1% DEN +0.9 pts |
| Q4 8:42 | False Start on the Raiders (Tristin McCollum), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DEN +0.2 pts |
| Q4 3:00 | Encroachment on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DEN +0.4 pts |
Raiders penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Broncos’ chance of winning
As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:26 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +8% LV | LV: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 9:13 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Dont'e Thornton), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 229 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 | +21% DEN | DEN: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 7:53 | The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +8% LV | DEN: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 1:27 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Pat Bryant), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 267 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 | +9% LV | LV: End of half |
| 5 | Q3 7:15 | False Start on the Broncos, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +8% LV | LV: Turnover |
| 6 | Q3 5:34 | The Raiders were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws | +10% DEN | LV: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 7:16 | The Broncos were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws | +21% LV | DEN: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 4:30 | D. Carlson missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 54 of 73 from 45+ before | +15% DEN | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Ben Powers (DEN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Kolton Miller (LV T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Raiders 57% · Broncos 43%
- Final margin
- Broncos by 3
- Luck in points
- 4.3 for the Broncos
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Raiders by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Raiders 55% · Broncos 45% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Raiders · 
Broncos
More from Week 10 2025
- Falcons vs Colts IND 31–25 · replay 84% for the winner
- Ravens at Vikings BAL 27–19 · replay 85% for the winner
- Bills at Dolphins MIA 30–13 · replay 58% for the winner
- Browns at Jets NYJ 27–20 · replay 48% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans HOU 36–29 · replay 94% for the winner
- Patriots at Buccaneers NE 28–23 · replay 71% for the winner
- Saints at Panthers NO 17–7 · replay 82% for the winner
- Giants at Bears CHI 24–20 · replay 85% for the winner
- Cardinals at Seahawks SEA 44–22 · replay 75% for the winner
- Lions at Commanders DET 44–22 · replay 85% for the winner
- Rams at 49ers LA 42–26 · replay 90% for the winner
- Steelers at Chargers LAC 25–10 · replay 77% for the winner
- Eagles at Packers PHI 10–7 · replay 48% for the winner