luckadjusted

Week 10 2025 · November 6, 2025

Raiders at Broncos, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Raiders 10–7, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Broncos win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 6.2 points to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:16 left): the Broncos were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 38 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 7
Denver Broncos 10

November 6, 2025 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −9.5

Luck index +49 Broncos lucky · −49 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 5, Broncos win 5.

  1. 1 LV 34 DEN 13
  2. 2 LV 33 DEN 19
  3. 3 LV 27 DEN 17
  4. 4 LV 20 DEN 15
  5. 5 LV 20 DEN 18
  6. 6 LV 23 DEN 25
  7. 7 LV 10 DEN 16
  8. 8 LV 3 DEN 13
  9. 9 LV 20 DEN 33
  10. 10 LV 3 DEN 25

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 49% of them, Broncos 51%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+9.1%
Raiders by 9–1614.2%
Raiders by 1–823.1%
Level after regulation6.3%
Broncos by 1–822.9%
Broncos by 9–1614.3%
Broncos by 17+10.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Broncos by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Raiders by 6.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 59 yds missed · 53% expected
  • W. Lutz, 32 yds made · 94% expected
  • D. Carlson, 48 yds missed · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:05 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +10% DEN LV: Punt
2 Q2 11:20 The Raiders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +10% LV LV: Punt
3 Q2 9:13 Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Dont'e Thornton), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 229 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +21% DEN DEN: Punt
4 Q2 6:03 The Raiders were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +10% DEN LV: Punt
5 Q3 6:25 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +12% LV DEN: Missed field goal
6 Q3 5:34 The Raiders were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% DEN LV: Punt
7 Q4 7:16 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedThe Broncos were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +38% LV DEN: End of game
8 Q4 4:30 D. Carlson missed 48-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 54 of 73 from 45+ before +15% DEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ben Powers (DEN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kolton Miller (LV T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 67% · Broncos 33%

Final margin
Broncos by 3
Luck in points
9.0 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 6.0
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 49% · Broncos 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Raiders · Broncos

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