luckadjusted

Week 10 2025 · November 10, 2025

Eagles at Packers, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Packers 10–7, but the Packers played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 2.6 points to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Packers were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:30 left): the Packers were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 34 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 10
Green Bay Packers 7

November 10, 2025 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −1.5

Luck index +64 Eagles very lucky · −64 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 4, Packers win 6.

  1. 1 PHI 24 GB 10
  2. 2 PHI 24 GB 14
  3. 3 PHI 28 GB 23
  4. 4 PHI 22 GB 20
  5. 5 PHI 21 GB 23
  6. 6 PHI 16 GB 20
  7. 7 PHI 7 GB 14
  8. 8 PHI 10 GB 20
  9. 9 PHI 13 GB 27
  10. 10 PHI 6 GB 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 36% of them, Packers 64%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+4.2%
Eagles by 9–169.6%
Eagles by 1–819.6%
Level after regulation2.8%
Packers by 1–828.4%
Packers by 9–1620.4%
Packers by 17+15.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 0.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 39 yds made · 86% expected
  • B. McManus, 64 yds missed · 46% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:59 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe Eagles fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +22% GB PHI: Punt
2 Q2 4:53 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsFalse Start on the Eagles, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +11% GB GB: Turnover
3 Q4 13:33 Illegal Formation on the Packers, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +18% PHI PHI: Touchdown
4 Q4 11:29 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +14% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q4 2:10 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +13% GB GB: Turnover
6 Q4 1:30 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedThe Packers fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +34% PHI GB: Missed field goal
7 Q4 0:33 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +12% GB –
8 Q4 0:02 B. McManus missed 64-yard field goalKicks · 46% expected for him, 65 of 93 from 45+ before +28% PHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tucker Kraft (GB TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Nate Hobbs (GB CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Lucas Havrisik (GB K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Matthew Golden (GB WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Lukas Van Ness (GB DL), out · 0.2 pts
  • Cam Jurgens (PHI C), out · 0.5 pts
  • Charley Hughlett (PHI LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 68% · Packers 32%

Final margin
Eagles by 3
Luck in points
3.5 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 36% · Packers 64% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Eagles · Packers

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