Week 10 2025 · November 10, 2025
Eagles at Packers, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
The Eagles beat the Packers 10–7, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Eagles win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 24 points of win probability to the Eagles.
Before kickoff the Packers were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:02 left): B. McManus missed a 64-yard field goal, worth 19 points of win probability to the Eagles.
Final
 Philadelphia Eagles | 10 |
|---|---|
 Green Bay Packers | 7 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 Eagles lucky · −52 Packers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eagles win 5, Packers win 5.
- 1 PHI 25 GB 3
- 2 PHI 22 GB 9
- 3 PHI 27 GB 18
- 4 PHI 13 GB 8
- 5 PHI 9 GB 7
- 6 PHI 11 GB 13
- 7 PHI 23 GB 29
- 8 PHI 10 GB 20
- 9 PHI 9 GB 24
- 10 PHI 6 GB 27
Your call
Did the Eagles earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eagles win 48% of them, Packers 52%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eagles by 17+ | 7.1% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 14.2% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 24.3% |
| Level after regulation | 6.5% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 22.9% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 15.3% |
| Packers by 17+ | 9.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Elliott, 39 yds made · 87% expected
- B. McManus, 64 yds missed · 31% expected
Penalties: Eagles 7 for 61 yards, Packers 4 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:38 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% GB +0.6 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on the Packers, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.7 pts |
| Q2 8:52 | Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.6 pts |
| Q2 4:58 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Evan Williams), 6 yards | +3% PHI +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:53 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +10% GB +2.5 pts |
| Q2 4:53 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GB +0.6 pts |
| Q2 2:18 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Kelee Ringo), 10 yards | +1% GB +0.4 pts |
| Q3 10:03 | Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% GB +0.6 pts |
| Q4 13:33 | Illegal Formation on the Packers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +18% PHI +2.8 pts |
| Q4 6:31 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Jihaad Campbell), 21 yards | +7% GB +1.8 pts |
| Q4 2:25 | Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% GB +0.3 pts |
Eagles penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Packers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:38 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +9% PHI | PHI: Turnover |
| 2 | Q2 4:53 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsFalse Start on the Eagles, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +11% GB | GB: Turnover |
| 3 | Q4 13:33 | Illegal Formation on the Packers, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +18% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 4:58 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +10% PHI | PHI: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 2:10 | The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +13% GB | GB: Turnover |
| 6 | Q4 1:30 | The Packers fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +12% PHI | GB: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 0:33 | The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +12% GB | – |
| 8 | Q4 0:02 | B. McManus missed a 64-yard field goalKicks · 31% expected for him, 65 of 93 from 45+ before | +19% PHI | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Tucker Kraft (GB TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Nate Hobbs (GB CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Lucas Havrisik (GB K), out · 0.3 pts
- Matthew Golden (GB WR), out · 0.3 pts
- Lukas Van Ness (GB DL), out · 0.2 pts
- Cam Jurgens (PHI C), out · 0.5 pts
- Charley Hughlett (PHI LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eagles 61% · Packers 39%
- Final margin
- Eagles by 3
- Luck in points
- 4.0 for the Eagles
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Packers by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Eagles 48% · Packers 52% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Eagles · 
Packers
More from Week 10 2025
- Raiders at Broncos DEN 10–7 · replay 45% for the winner
- Falcons vs Colts IND 31–25 · replay 84% for the winner
- Ravens at Vikings BAL 27–19 · replay 85% for the winner
- Bills at Dolphins MIA 30–13 · replay 58% for the winner
- Browns at Jets NYJ 27–20 · replay 48% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans HOU 36–29 · replay 94% for the winner
- Patriots at Buccaneers NE 28–23 · replay 71% for the winner
- Saints at Panthers NO 17–7 · replay 82% for the winner
- Giants at Bears CHI 24–20 · replay 85% for the winner
- Cardinals at Seahawks SEA 44–22 · replay 75% for the winner
- Lions at Commanders DET 44–22 · replay 85% for the winner
- Rams at 49ers LA 42–26 · replay 90% for the winner
- Steelers at Chargers LAC 25–10 · replay 77% for the winner