luckadjusted

Week 10 2025 · November 9, 2025

Lions at Commanders, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Commanders 44–22, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 8 of 10. The Commanders had the bounces: drops alone were worth 2.7 points to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the Lions were 74% favorites.

Final

Detroit Lions 44
Washington Commanders 22

November 9, 2025 · FedExField · Closing line: Lions −8.5

Luck index +18 Lions about even · −18 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 8, Commanders win 2.

  1. 1 DET 41 WAS 13
  2. 2 DET 31 WAS 10
  3. 3 DET 34 WAS 17
  4. 4 DET 29 WAS 15
  5. 5 DET 20 WAS 10
  6. 6 DET 24 WAS 16
  7. 7 DET 27 WAS 21
  8. 8 DET 14 WAS 13
  9. 9 DET 17 WAS 20
  10. 10 DET 15 WAS 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 82% of them, Commanders 18%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+31.3%
Lions by 9–1621.5%
Lions by 1–827.4%
Level after regulation2.6%
Commanders by 1–810.5%
Commanders by 9–165.2%
Commanders by 17+1.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Lions by 22. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 15.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 44 yds made · 80% expected
  • J. Bates, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Bates, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Bates, 48 yds made · 73% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:45 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +4% DET WAS: Punt
2 Q1 9:55 The Lions converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +6% DET DET: Touchdown
3 Q1 4:04 A. St. Brown dropped a catchable passDrops · 14 drops on 463 catchable balls before this +4% WAS DET: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:22 The Lions converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% DET DET: Touchdown
5 Q1 1:58 The Lions converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +4% DET DET: Touchdown
6 Q1 0:01 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +3% DET WAS: Punt
7 Q2 12:01 The Lions converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +4% DET DET: Touchdown
8 Q3 7:09 The Commanders converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +5% WAS WAS: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jayden Daniels (WAS QB), out, replaced by m.mariota · 4.0 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (WAS CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Terry McLaurin (WAS WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Will Harris (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kerby Joseph (DET S), out · 0.8 pts
  • D.J. Reed (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Mahogany (DET OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 100% · Commanders 0%

Final margin
Lions by 22
Luck in points
6.8 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 15.2
Replay with same day's form
Lions 82% · Commanders 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Lions · Commanders

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