luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 10 2025 · November 9, 2025

Lions at Commanders, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Commanders 44–22, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Lions were 74% favorites.

Final

Detroit Lions 44
Washington Commanders 22

November 9, 2025 · FedExField · Closing line: Lions −8.5

Luck index +15 Lions about even · −15 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 8, Commanders win 2.

  1. 1 DET 42 WAS 14
  2. 2 DET 41 WAS 20
  3. 3 DET 27 WAS 10
  4. 4 DET 30 WAS 17
  5. 5 DET 30 WAS 20
  6. 6 DET 31 WAS 23
  7. 7 DET 28 WAS 23
  8. 8 DET 19 WAS 17
  9. 9 DET 17 WAS 20
  10. 10 DET 20 WAS 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 85% of them, Commanders 15%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+34.0%
Lions by 9–1624.2%
Lions by 1–825.9%
Level after regulation1.0%
Commanders by 1–810.1%
Commanders by 9–164.1%
Commanders by 17+0.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.1 points to the Lions: the final margin was Lions by 22, without the luck Lions by 18.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 44 yds made · 81% expected
  • J. Bates, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Bates, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Bates, 48 yds made · 73% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 3 for 1 yards, Commanders 8 for 61 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:27 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +1.1 pts
Q2 9:55 Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Javon Kinlaw), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.4 pts
Q2 9:51 Disqualification on the Commanders (Daron Payne), 1 yard 0% DET +0.1 pts
Q2 9:41 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Commanders (Javon Kinlaw), 15 yards 0% DET +1.0 pts
Q2 9:41 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Lions (Jake Bates), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS 0.0 pts
Q2 3:39 Delay of Game on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET 0.0 pts
Q2 0:14 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Commanders (Quan Martin), 15 yards +2% DET +1.4 pts
Q2 0:11 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Lions (Jake Bates), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS 0.0 pts
Q4 12:50 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Jordan Magee), 10 yards 0% DET +0.9 pts
Q4 11:22 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.5 pts
Q4 6:57 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Avonte Maddox), 1 yard 0% WAS 0.0 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:45 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +4% DET WAS: Punt
2 Q1 9:55 The Lions converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% DET DET: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:27 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedFalse Start on the Commanders, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +3% DET WAS: Field goal
4 Q1 3:22 The Lions converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% DET DET: Touchdown
5 Q1 1:58 The Lions converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +3% DET DET: Touchdown
6 Q2 12:01 The Lions converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +4% DET DET: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:43 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +3% DET DET: Field goal
8 Q3 7:09 The Commanders converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +4% WAS WAS: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jayden Daniels (WAS QB), out, replaced by m.mariota · 4.0 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (WAS CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Terry McLaurin (WAS WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Will Harris (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kerby Joseph (DET S), out · 0.8 pts
  • D.J. Reed (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Christian Mahogany (DET OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 100% · Commanders 0%

Final margin
Lions by 22
Luck in points
3.1 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 18.9
Replay with same day's form
Lions 85% · Commanders 15% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Lions · Commanders

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