luckadjusted

Week 10 2025 · November 9, 2025

Browns at Jets, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Browns 27–20, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Jets win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 2.0 points to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Browns were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:34 left): Return touchdown by the Jets, worth 17 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Cleveland Browns 20
New York Jets 27

November 9, 2025 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Browns −1.5

Luck index +55 Jets lucky · −55 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 6, Jets win 4.

  1. 1 CLE 37 NYJ 17
  2. 2 CLE 20 NYJ 5
  3. 3 CLE 16 NYJ 6
  4. 4 CLE 20 NYJ 13
  5. 5 CLE 20 NYJ 16
  6. 6 CLE 23 NYJ 21
  7. 7 CLE 12 NYJ 15
  8. 8 CLE 10 NYJ 16
  9. 9 CLE 6 NYJ 17
  10. 10 CLE 17 NYJ 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 55% of them, Jets 45%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+10.6%
Browns by 9–1615.8%
Browns by 1–823.1%
Level after regulation6.7%
Jets by 1–821.4%
Jets by 9–1614.1%
Jets by 17+8.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jets by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jets by 4.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 26 yds made · 100% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 45 yds made · 77% expected
  • N. Folk, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 29 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Azareye'h Thomas), 29 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 194 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +7% CLE CLE: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:34 Return touchdown by the JetsSpecial teams +17% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:01 Return touchdown by the JetsSpecial teams +12% NYJ NYJ: Opp touchdown
4 Q2 0:27 The Browns got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% CLE CLE: Field goal
5 Q2 0:01 A. Szmyt made 45-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 3 of 5 from 45+ before +10% CLE CLE: Punt
6 Q3 11:18 The Browns converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% CLE CLE: Punt
7 Q4 10:21 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +6% NYJ CLE: Field goal
8 Q4 3:37 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% NYJ CLE: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Josh Reynolds (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Andre Cisco (NYJ S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Francisco Mauigoa (NYJ LB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Cornelius Lucas (CLE T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Isaiah Bond (CLE WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Dawand Jones (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 22% · Jets 78%

Final margin
Jets by 7
Luck in points
2.5 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 4.5
Replay with same day's form
Browns 55% · Jets 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Browns · Jets

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