2025 season · final
New York Jets, 2025: game by game
The Jets went 3–14 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 3.8 wins. Luck cost them 0.8: the 13th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–5.
Every game
How often the Jets win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Steelers | L 32–34 | 93% | −93 |
| Week 2 | vs Bills | L 10–30 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 3 | @ Buccaneers | L 27–29 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 4 | @ Dolphins | L 21–27 | 71% | −71 |
| Week 5 | vs Cowboys | L 22–37 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 6 | vs Broncos | L 11–13 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 7 | vs Panthers | L 6–13 | 12% | −12 |
| Week 8 | @ Bengals | W 39–38 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 10 | vs Browns | W 27–20 | 48% | +52 |
| Week 11 | @ Patriots | L 14–27 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 12 | @ Ravens | L 10–23 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 13 | vs Falcons | W 27–24 | 9% | +91 |
| Week 14 | vs Dolphins | L 10–34 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 15 | @ Jaguars | L 20–48 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 16 | @ Saints | L 6–29 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 17 | vs Patriots | L 10–42 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 18 | @ Bills | L 8–35 | 0% | 0 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jets’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Drops | +0.78 | −1.2 |
| Kicks | +0.25 | +6.5 |
| Rest | −0.03 | −0.6 |
| Injuries | −0.06 | −4.1 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.34 | −7.8 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.48 | −19.1 |