luckadjusted

Week 7 2025 · October 19, 2025

Panthers at Jets, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Jets 13–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Panthers win 9 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.5 points to the Jets.

An off day for the Jets: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Panthers they would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Jets were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:12 left): the Panthers converted 4th & 3, worth 11 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 13
New York Jets 6

October 19, 2025 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Jets −1.5

Luck index +15 Panthers about even · −15 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 9, Jets win 1.

  1. 1 CAR 29 NYJ 3
  2. 2 CAR 23 NYJ 3
  3. 3 CAR 17 NYJ 0
  4. 4 CAR 26 NYJ 13
  5. 5 CAR 28 NYJ 17
  6. 6 CAR 15 NYJ 7
  7. 7 CAR 13 NYJ 6
  8. 8 CAR 18 NYJ 14
  9. 9 CAR 12 NYJ 10
  10. 10 CAR 3 NYJ 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Jets

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Panthers they would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%.

37 points apart for the Jets: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Panthers offenseEPA per play gained −0.09 +0.09 worse by 0.18
Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed −0.17 +0.17 better by 0.34
Jets offenseEPA per play gained −0.17 +0.04 worse by 0.21
Jets defenseEPA per play allowed −0.09 +0.12 better by 0.21

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 85% of them, Jets 15%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+31.6%
Panthers by 9–1623.3%
Panthers by 1–828.9%
Level after regulation1.8%
Jets by 1–89.6%
Jets by 9–164.3%
Jets by 17+0.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Panthers by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 8.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Fitzgerald, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • N. Folk, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • N. Folk, 47 yds made · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:02 The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CAR CAR: Field goal
2 Q2 14:56 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +10% NYJ CAR: Punt
3 Q2 13:31 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Nick Scott), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 4761 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +6% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
4 Q2 7:01 The Panthers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% CAR CAR: Punt
5 Q2 2:12 The Panthers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +11% CAR CAR: Touchdown
6 Q3 7:57 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +6% CAR NYJ: Punt
7 Q3 1:30 The Jets converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +7% NYJ NYJ: Turnover
8 Q4 4:34 The Jets threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% CAR NYJ: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Garrett Wilson (NYJ WR), out · 1.1 pts
  • Quincy Williams (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Damien Lewis (CAR G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Robert Hunt (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Patrick Jones II (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 95% · Jets 5%

Final margin
Panthers by 7
Luck in points
1.3 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 8.3
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 85% · Jets 15% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Panthers · Jets

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