luckadjusted

Week 7 2025 · October 16, 2025

Steelers at Bengals, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Steelers 33–31, but the Steelers played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 3.9 points to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:11 left): E. McPherson made 36-yard field goal, worth 17 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 31
Cincinnati Bengals 33

October 16, 2025 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −5.5

Luck index +64 Bengals very lucky · −64 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 6, Bengals win 4.

  1. 1 PIT 34 CIN 13
  2. 2 PIT 16 CIN 0
  3. 3 PIT 31 CIN 20
  4. 4 PIT 28 CIN 21
  5. 5 PIT 38 CIN 34
  6. 6 PIT 30 CIN 28
  7. 7 PIT 19 CIN 21
  8. 8 PIT 10 CIN 16
  9. 9 PIT 17 CIN 27
  10. 10 PIT 20 CIN 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 64% of them, Bengals 36%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+16.3%
Steelers by 9–1620.0%
Steelers by 1–827.6%
Level after regulation2.6%
Bengals by 1–818.9%
Bengals by 9–169.9%
Bengals by 17+4.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bengals by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 6.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 41 yds made · 89% expected
  • E. McPherson, 49 yds made · 74% expected
  • E. McPherson, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • E. McPherson, 45 yds made · 81% expected
  • E. McPherson, 36 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 24% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:50 The Steelers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +15% PIT PIT: Touchdown
2 Q2 12:19 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% CIN CIN: Touchdown
3 Q2 8:19 The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% CIN CIN: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:43 The Steelers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% CIN PIT: Touchdown
5 Q3 3:59 The Steelers converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +7% PIT PIT: Touchdown
6 Q3 2:29 The Bengals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +8% CIN CIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:39 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% CIN CIN: Field goal
8 Q4 0:11 E. McPherson made 36-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him +17% CIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Burrow (CIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.flacco · 5.6 pts
  • Trey Hendrickson (CIN DE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Cam Taylor-Britt (CIN CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Mike Gesicki (CIN TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Cordell Volson (CIN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Calvin Austin III (PIT WR), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 55% · Bengals 45%

Final margin
Bengals by 2
Luck in points
4.6 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 6.6
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 64% · Bengals 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Steelers · Bengals

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