luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 7 2025 · October 20, 2025

Texans at Seahawks, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Texans 27–19, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:33 left): Return touchdown by the Texans, worth 21 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 19
Seattle Seahawks 27

October 20, 2025 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −3

Luck index +9 Seahawks about even · −9 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 1, Seahawks win 9.

  1. 1 HOU 34 SEA 27
  2. 2 HOU 28 SEA 30
  3. 3 HOU 27 SEA 33
  4. 4 HOU 3 SEA 12
  5. 5 HOU 3 SEA 16
  6. 6 HOU 24 SEA 41
  7. 7 HOU 23 SEA 42
  8. 8 HOU 3 SEA 26
  9. 9 HOU 10 SEA 38
  10. 10 HOU 9 SEA 46

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 9% of them, Seahawks 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+0.5%
Texans by 9–162.0%
Texans by 1–86.1%
Level after regulation0.7%
Seahawks by 1–812.2%
Seahawks by 9–1619.6%
Seahawks by 17+58.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.1 points to the Texans: the final margin was Seahawks by 8, without the luck Seahawks by 14.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Myers, 53 yds blocked · 70% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 46 yds made · 80% expected
  • J. Myers, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Myers, 47 yds made · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 10 for 105 yards, Seahawks 12 for 93 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 2:23 Defensive Offside on the Texans (Will Anderson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.3 pts
Q1 0:33 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Azeez Al-Shaair), 11 yards +3% SEA +1.4 pts
Q1 0:02 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Seahawks (Jaxon Smith-Njigba), 15 yards +1% HOU +1.4 pts
Q2 12:19 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +1% HOU +1.2 pts
Q2 11:08 False Start on the Seahawks (Tory Horton), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.7 pts
Q2 10:30 Illegal Shift on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% HOU +1.5 pts
Q2 9:10 Face Mask on the Texans (Mario Edwards), 15 yards +1% SEA +0.8 pts
Q2 5:39 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Ernest Jones), 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% HOU +2.3 pts
Q2 3:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Drake Thomas), 5 yards 0% HOU +0.3 pts
Q3 14:14 Illegal Blindside Block on the Seahawks (Uchenna Nwosu), 15 yards +2% HOU +1.0 pts
Q3 9:58 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Josh Jobe), 5 yards 0% HOU +0.3 pts
Q3 1:45 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Kamari Lassiter), 15 yards +1% SEA +1.3 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.6 pts
Q4 13:21 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +1.1 pts
Q4 11:50 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards 0% HOU +0.8 pts
Q4 9:54 Illegal Blindside Block on the Texans, 15 yards +1% SEA +1.2 pts
Q4 8:55 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards 0% HOU +0.9 pts
Q4 8:33 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Derek Stingley Jr.), 15 yards +1% SEA +1.4 pts
Q4 5:08 False Start on the Texans, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +1.8 pts
Q4 3:42 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.8 pts
Q4 3:10 Illegal Contact on the Seahawks (Ernest Jones), 3 yards 0% HOU +0.7 pts
Q4 1:10 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Tim Settle), 15 yards +3% SEA +1.8 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:45 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +4% HOU SEA: Touchdown
2 Q1 3:01 The Seahawks converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +4% SEA SEA: Touchdown
3 Q2 5:39 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Ernest Jones), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 3980 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +5% HOU HOU: Field goal
4 Q2 0:23 J. Myers had a 53-yard field goal blockedKicks · 70% expected for him, 51 of 69 from 45+ before +7% HOU SEA: Field goal
5 Q3 7:33 The Seahawks fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the TexansSpecial teams +21% HOU SEA: Field goal
6 Q3 5:19 J. Myers made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 51 of 70 from 45+ before +6% SEA SEA: Touchdown
7 Q3 3:15 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +4% SEA HOU: Punt
8 Q3 2:26 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +4% SEA SEA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Devon Witherspoon (SEA CB), out · 1.4 pts
  • Julian Love (SEA S), out · 0.5 pts
  • Julian Love (SEA SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Christian Kirk (HOU WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Joe Mixon (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cade Stover (HOU TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 3% · Seahawks 97%

Final margin
Seahawks by 8
Luck in points
6.1 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 14.1
Replay with same day's form
Texans 9% · Seahawks 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Texans · Seahawks

More from Week 7 2025