luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2025 NFL season · October 16, 2025–October 20

Week 7 2025: who deserved to win

No winner of Week 7 was behind in the replays. The closest call: the Packers won 27–23 and take 56% of replays.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 7 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Bengals 33–31 vs Steelers 34% 59% Coin flip
Colts 38–24 @ Chargers 43% 60% Deserved
Panthers 13–6 @ Jets 46% 88% Deserved

Week 7 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Packers W 27–23 @ Cardinals 56% +44
2 Bengals W 33–31 vs Steelers 59% +41
3 Colts W 38–24 @ Chargers 60% +40
4 Lions W 24–9 vs Buccaneers 67% +33
5 Broncos W 33–32 vs Giants 71% +29
6 Eagles W 28–22 @ Vikings 71% +29
7 49ers W 20–10 vs Falcons 74% +26
8 Cowboys W 44–22 vs Commanders 78% +22
9 Browns W 31–6 vs Dolphins 79% +21
10 Panthers W 13–6 @ Jets 88% +12
11 Rams W 35–7 @ Jaguars 89% +11
12 Seahawks W 27–19 vs Texans 91% +9
13 Bears W 26–14 vs Saints 96% +4
14 Patriots W 31–13 @ Titans 97% +3
15 Chiefs W 31–0 vs Raiders 98% +2
16 Raiders L 0–31 @ Chiefs 2% −2
17 Titans L 13–31 vs Patriots 3% −3
18 Saints L 14–26 @ Bears 4% −4
19 Texans L 19–27 @ Seahawks 9% −9
20 Jaguars L 7–35 vs Rams 11% −11
21 Jets L 6–13 vs Panthers 12% −12
22 Dolphins L 6–31 @ Browns 21% −21
23 Commanders L 22–44 @ Cowboys 22% −22
24 Falcons L 10–20 @ 49ers 26% −26
25 Vikings L 22–28 vs Eagles 29% −29
26 Giants L 32–33 @ Broncos 29% −29
27 Buccaneers L 9–24 @ Lions 33% −33
28 Chargers L 24–38 vs Colts 40% −40
29 Steelers L 31–33 @ Bengals 41% −41
30 Cardinals L 23–27 vs Packers 44% −44