luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2025 NFL season · October 23, 2025–October 27

Week 8 2025: who deserved to win

No winner of Week 8 was behind in the replays. The closest call: the Texans won 26–15 and take 48% of replays.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 8 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 2 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Dolphins 34–10 @ Falcons 30% 78% Deserved
Jets 39–38 @ Bengals 34% 71% Deserved

Week 8 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Texans W 26–15 vs 49ers 48% +52
2 Ravens W 30–16 vs Bears 55% +45
3 Chiefs W 28–7 vs Commanders 65% +35
4 Buccaneers W 23–3 @ Saints 70% +30
5 Jets W 39–38 @ Bengals 71% +29
6 Dolphins W 34–10 @ Falcons 78% +22
7 Eagles W 38–20 vs Giants 81% +19
8 Broncos W 44–24 vs Cowboys 91% +9
9 Packers W 35–25 @ Steelers 97% +3
10 Colts W 38–14 vs Titans 97% +3
11 Chargers W 37–10 vs Vikings 99% +1
12 Bills W 40–9 @ Panthers 99% +1
13 Patriots W 32–13 vs Browns 99% +1
14 Browns L 13–32 @ Patriots 1% −1
15 Panthers L 9–40 vs Bills 1% −1
16 Vikings L 10–37 @ Chargers 1% −1
17 Titans L 14–38 @ Colts 3% −3
18 Steelers L 25–35 vs Packers 3% −3
19 Cowboys L 24–44 @ Broncos 9% −9
20 Giants L 20–38 @ Eagles 19% −19
21 Falcons L 10–34 vs Dolphins 22% −22
22 Bengals L 38–39 vs Jets 29% −29
23 Saints L 3–23 vs Buccaneers 30% −30
24 Commanders L 7–28 @ Chiefs 35% −35
25 Bears L 16–30 @ Ravens 45% −45
26 49ers L 15–26 @ Texans 52% −52