luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2025 · October 26, 2025

49ers at Texans, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the 49ers 26–15, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Texans win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 18 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Texans were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:01 left): the Texans converted 3rd & 11, worth 11 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 15
Houston Texans 26

October 26, 2025 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −2.5

Luck index +52 Texans lucky · −52 49ers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 5, Texans win 5.

  1. 1 SF 28 HOU 7
  2. 2 SF 33 HOU 20
  3. 3 SF 15 HOU 7
  4. 4 SF 24 HOU 19
  5. 5 SF 23 HOU 21
  6. 6 SF 28 HOU 30
  7. 7 SF 10 HOU 14
  8. 8 SF 13 HOU 20
  9. 9 SF 16 HOU 28
  10. 10 SF 7 HOU 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 52% of them, Texans 48%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+9.3%
49ers by 9–1615.2%
49ers by 1–823.4%
Level after regulation6.5%
Texans by 1–823.9%
Texans by 9–1613.8%
Texans by 17+8.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.0 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 11, without the luck Texans by 1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 33 yds made · 96% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 37 yds made · 93% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 30 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: 49ers 4 for 30 yards, Texans 8 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:09 Illegal Shift on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SF +0.9 pts
Q1 10:19 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Texans, 5 yards +1% SF +0.7 pts
Q1 5:14 Illegal Formation on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.5 pts
Q1 5:00 Defensive Offside on the Texans (Will Anderson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% SF 0.0 pts
Q1 4:47 Face Mask on the 49ers (Jauan Jennings), 15 yards +4% HOU +1.0 pts
Q2 12:44 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +2% SF +0.9 pts
Q2 4:28 Defensive Holding on the 49ers (Upton Stout), 5 yards +1% HOU +1.1 pts
Q2 1:54 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +1% SF +1.1 pts
Q2 0:58 Face Mask on the Texans (Dylan Horton), 15 yards +1% SF +1.4 pts
Q3 15:00 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Texans (Ka'imi Fairbairn), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% SF 0.0 pts
Q3 5:25 False Start on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.7 pts
Q3 5:25 Defensive Offside on the Texans (Will Anderson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SF +0.3 pts

49ers penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:01 The Texans converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +11% HOU HOU: Field goal
2 Q1 8:15 The Texans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +7% HOU HOU: Field goal
3 Q1 6:06 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +5% SF HOU: Field goal
4 Q1 4:47 Face Mask on the 49ers (Jauan Jennings), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 2554 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +4% HOU HOU: Field goal
5 Q1 0:09 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +3% SF HOU: Field goal
6 Q2 0:29 The 49ers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +4% SF SF: Touchdown
7 Q2 0:11 The 49ers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50The Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +10% SF SF: Punt
8 Q3 1:13 The 49ers converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +3% SF SF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Christian Kirk (HOU WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Joe Mixon (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cade Stover (HOU TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Brock Purdy (SF QB), out, replaced by m.jones · 7.3 pts
  • Nick Bosa (SF DL), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Fred Warner (SF LB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Ricky Pearsall (SF WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jake Brendel (SF OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Bryce Huff (SF DL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ben Bartch (SF OL), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 7% · Texans 93%

Final margin
Texans by 11
Luck in points
10.0 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 1.0
Replay with same day's form
49ers 52% · Texans 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 49ers · Texans

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