luckadjusted

Week 8 2025 · October 26, 2025

49ers at Texans, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the 49ers 26–15, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Texans win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 8.3 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Texans were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:01 left): the Texans converted 3rd & 11, worth 11 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 15
Houston Texans 26

October 26, 2025 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −2.5

Luck index +54 Texans lucky · −54 49ers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 5, Texans win 5.

  1. 1 SF 35 HOU 14
  2. 2 SF 19 HOU 5
  3. 3 SF 19 HOU 10
  4. 4 SF 20 HOU 15
  5. 5 SF 22 HOU 20
  6. 6 SF 21 HOU 23
  7. 7 SF 12 HOU 16
  8. 8 SF 20 HOU 27
  9. 9 SF 6 HOU 17
  10. 10 SF 3 HOU 22

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 54% of them, Texans 46%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+9.9%
49ers by 9–1615.3%
49ers by 1–823.6%
Level after regulation7.0%
Texans by 1–822.8%
Texans by 9–1613.3%
Texans by 17+8.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 11. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes 49ers by 0.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 33 yds made · 96% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 37 yds made · 93% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 30 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:01 The Texans converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +11% HOU HOU: Field goal
2 Q1 8:15 The Texans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +7% HOU HOU: Field goal
3 Q1 6:06 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +6% SF HOU: Field goal
4 Q1 4:47 Face Mask on the 49ers (Jauan Jennings), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 2554 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +4% HOU HOU: Field goal
5 Q2 0:29 The 49ers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% SF SF: Touchdown
6 Q2 0:11 The 49ers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50The Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% SF SF: Punt
7 Q3 7:35 The Texans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% HOU HOU: Touchdown
8 Q3 1:13 The 49ers converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +4% SF SF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Christian Kirk (HOU WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Joe Mixon (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cade Stover (HOU TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Brock Purdy (SF QB), out, replaced by m.jones · 7.3 pts
  • Nick Bosa (SF DL), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Fred Warner (SF LB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Ricky Pearsall (SF WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jake Brendel (SF OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Bryce Huff (SF DL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ben Bartch (SF OL), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 7% · Texans 93%

Final margin
Texans by 11
Luck in points
11.5 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
49ers 54% · Texans 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 49ers · Texans

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