luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2025 · October 27, 2025

Commanders at Chiefs, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Commanders 28–7, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:49 left): the Commanders were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 10 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Washington Commanders 7
Kansas City Chiefs 28

October 27, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −10.5

Luck index +35 Chiefs lucky · −35 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 4, Chiefs win 6.

  1. 1 WAS 31 KC 14
  2. 2 WAS 20 KC 10
  3. 3 WAS 21 KC 16
  4. 4 WAS 30 KC 28
  5. 5 WAS 28 KC 30
  6. 6 WAS 24 KC 28
  7. 7 WAS 10 KC 17
  8. 8 WAS 17 KC 28
  9. 9 WAS 7 KC 22
  10. 10 WAS 16 KC 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 35% of them, Chiefs 65%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+4.2%
Commanders by 9–168.5%
Commanders by 1–821.0%
Level after regulation2.3%
Chiefs by 1–828.3%
Chiefs by 9–1620.7%
Chiefs by 17+15.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.9 points to the Chiefs: the final margin was Chiefs by 21, without the luck Chiefs by 11.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Commanders 3 for 35 yards, Chiefs 9 for 95 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 0:58 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Jack Cochrane), 10 yards +2% WAS +0.7 pts
Q2 0:12 Intentional Grounding on the Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes), 10 yards +4% WAS +0.9 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Christian Roland-Wallace), 10 yards +1% WAS +0.9 pts
Q3 14:09 Unnecessary Roughness on the Commanders (Quan Martin), 15 yards +4% KC +1.3 pts
Q4 13:36 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Rashee Rice), 10 yards 0% WAS +0.9 pts
Q4 12:29 Taunting on the Chiefs (Rashee Rice), 15 yards +1% WAS +1.4 pts
Q4 7:52 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KC +0.5 pts
Q4 6:59 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chiefs (Jeffrey Bassa), 10 yards 0% WAS +0.9 pts
Q4 6:04 Unnecessary Roughness on the Commanders (Jer'Zhan Newton), 15 yards 0% KC +1.7 pts
Q4 4:00 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards 0% WAS +0.9 pts
Q4 2:00 Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% WAS +2.5 pts
Q4 0:22 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Chiefs (Charles Omenihu), 15 yards 0% WAS +1.1 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:49 The Commanders were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +10% KC WAS: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 7:08 The Chiefs fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% KC KC: Turnover
3 Q2 13:09 The Chiefs were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +6% WAS KC: Touchdown
4 Q2 10:30 The Commanders were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +8% KC WAS: Touchdown
5 Q2 3:16 The Commanders converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +6% WAS WAS: Touchdown
6 Q2 1:04 The Commanders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% WAS WAS: Touchdown
7 Q3 10:19 The Chiefs converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +7% KC KC: Touchdown
8 Q3 8:25 J. Lane dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 13 catchable balls before this +6% KC WAS: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Josh Simmons (KC T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Trey Smith (KC G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jayden Daniels (WAS QB), out, replaced by m.mariota · 3.6 pts
  • Matt Gay (WAS K), out · 0.4 pts
  • Will Harris (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Ekeler (WAS RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 0% · Chiefs 100%

Final margin
Chiefs by 21
Luck in points
9.9 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 11.1
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 35% · Chiefs 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · Commanders · Chiefs

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