luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2025 · October 26, 2025

Cowboys at Broncos, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Cowboys 44–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Broncos win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 60% favorites.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 24
Denver Broncos 44

October 26, 2025 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −3.5

Luck index +9 Broncos about even · −9 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 1, Broncos win 9.

  1. 1 DAL 31 DEN 23
  2. 2 DAL 17 DEN 20
  3. 3 DAL 16 DEN 22
  4. 4 DAL 31 DEN 40
  5. 5 DAL 17 DEN 30
  6. 6 DAL 14 DEN 30
  7. 7 DAL 21 DEN 40
  8. 8 DAL 13 DEN 37
  9. 9 DAL 24 DEN 53
  10. 10 DAL 20 DEN 58

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 9% of them, Broncos 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+0.6%
Cowboys by 9–162.0%
Cowboys by 1–85.1%
Level after regulation1.1%
Broncos by 1–816.1%
Broncos by 9–1620.7%
Broncos by 17+54.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.1 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Broncos by 20, without the luck Broncos by 22.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 24 yds made · 100% expected
  • W. Lutz, 42 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 9 for 80 yards, Broncos 7 for 42 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:39 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +1.6 pts
Q1 9:12 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (James Houston), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% DEN +0.7 pts
Q1 7:34 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.8 pts
Q1 3:35 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards +3% DAL +1.3 pts
Q1 0:18 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% DEN +1.5 pts
Q2 13:44 Defensive Offside on the Broncos (John Franklin-Myers), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.3 pts
Q2 9:20 Illegal Formation on the Cowboys, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.7 pts
Q2 6:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Alijah Clark), 32 yards +4% DEN +2.0 pts
Q2 5:35 Encroachment on the Cowboys (Solomon Thomas), 1 yard · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.1 pts
Q2 3:51 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Sam Williams), 1 yard 0% DEN +0.1 pts
Q3 9:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Riley Moss), 0 yards +1% DAL +0.6 pts
Q3 8:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Riley Moss), 0 yards 0% DAL +0.2 pts
Q3 6:16 Offensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Adam Trautman), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% DAL +3.8 pts
Q3 4:44 Defensive Holding on the Broncos (Ja'Quan McMillian), 5 yards +2% DAL +1.7 pts
Q4 10:50 Roughing the Passer on the Broncos (Malcolm Roach), 12 yards +1% DAL +1.5 pts
Q4 7:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Markquese Bell), 17 yards 0% DEN +1.5 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 35% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:44 The Broncos threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +4% DAL DEN: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:39 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedFalse Start on the Cowboys, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% DEN DAL: Field goal
3 Q1 9:12 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (James Houston), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 4 flags in 676 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304 +4% DEN DEN: Touchdown
4 Q1 9:07 The Broncos converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +3% DEN DEN: Touchdown
5 Q1 0:23 L. Schoonmaker dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 43 catchable balls before this +3% DEN DAL: Punt
6 Q2 6:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Alijah Clark), 32 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 55 snaps before, position avg 1 per 244 +4% DEN DEN: Touchdown
7 Q3 6:16 Offensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Adam Trautman), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 12 flags in 3614 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +8% DAL DAL: Punt
8 Q3 4:38 The Cowboys fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% DAL DAL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ben Powers (DEN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Donovan Wilson (DAL S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cooper Beebe (DAL C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Malik Hooker (DAL S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jack Sanborn (DAL LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 0% · Broncos 100%

Final margin
Broncos by 20
Luck in points
2.1 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 22.1
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 9% · Broncos 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · Cowboys · Broncos

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