luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2025 · October 26, 2025

Jets at Bengals, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Bengals 39–38, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

An off day for the Bengals: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 64% of the time; with this day’s form, 29%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Bengals were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:32 left): the Bengals were stopped on 4th & 9, worth 26 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New York Jets 39
Cincinnati Bengals 38

October 26, 2025 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −5.5

Luck index +29 Jets lucky · −29 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 7, Bengals win 3.

  1. 1 NYJ 43 CIN 14
  2. 2 NYJ 37 CIN 17
  3. 3 NYJ 32 CIN 17
  4. 4 NYJ 24 CIN 13
  5. 5 NYJ 35 CIN 27
  6. 6 NYJ 30 CIN 24
  7. 7 NYJ 20 CIN 17
  8. 8 NYJ 20 CIN 23
  9. 9 NYJ 17 CIN 27
  10. 10 NYJ 21 CIN 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Bengals

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 64% of the time; with this day’s form, 29%.

34 points apart for the Bengals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Jets offenseEPA per play gained +0.33 +0.03 better by 0.30
Jets defenseEPA per play allowed +0.27 +0.11 worse by 0.16
Bengals offenseEPA per play gained +0.27 +0.12 better by 0.15
Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed +0.33 +0.18 worse by 0.15

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 71% of them, Bengals 29%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+22.9%
Jets by 9–1621.6%
Jets by 1–825.2%
Level after regulation3.4%
Bengals by 1–814.7%
Bengals by 9–167.3%
Bengals by 17+4.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 points to the Jets: the final margin was Jets by 1, without the luck Jets by 0.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • N. Folk, 46 yds made · 84% expected
  • N. Folk, 25 yds made · 100% expected
  • N. Folk, 24 yds made · 100% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 4 for 25 yards, Bengals 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 3:23 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% NYJ +1.9 pts
Q2 1:28 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Quinnen Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.6 pts
Q2 0:24 Illegal Contact on the Bengals (Cam Taylor-Britt), 5 yards +2% NYJ +0.7 pts
Q3 10:58 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Qwan'tez Stiggers), 10 yards +2% CIN +0.8 pts
Q3 10:43 False Start on the Jets (Mason Taylor), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.7 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Jets (Breece Hall), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.7 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 97%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:06 The Bengals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% CIN CIN: Field goal
2 Q1 10:21 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +4% NYJ CIN: Field goal
3 Q1 8:20 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +9% CIN NYJ: Punt
4 Q2 3:23 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
5 Q2 1:08 The Jets converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +4% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
6 Q3 5:29 The Bengals converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +4% CIN CIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:37 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% NYJ CIN: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:32 The Bengals were stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +26% NYJ –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Burrow (CIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.flacco · 4.9 pts
  • Mike Gesicki (CIN TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Tyrod Taylor (NYJ QB), out, replaced by j.fields · 1.5 pts
  • Sauce Gardner (NYJ CB), out · 1.4 pts
  • Garrett Wilson (NYJ WR), out · 1.1 pts
  • Josh Reynolds (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 57% · Bengals 43%

Final margin
Jets by 1
Luck in points
0.4 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Jets 71% · Bengals 29% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · Jets · Bengals

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