luckadjusted

Week 8 2025 · October 26, 2025

Titans at Colts, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Titans 38–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 10 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 5.0 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Colts were 87% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:06 left): J. Slye missed 58-yard field goal, worth 9 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Tennessee Titans 14
Indianapolis Colts 38

October 26, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −15.5

Luck index +3 Colts about even · −3 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 0, Colts win 10.

  1. 1 TEN 13 IND 16
  2. 2 TEN 17 IND 24
  3. 3 TEN 18 IND 29
  4. 4 TEN 22 IND 36
  5. 5 TEN 17 IND 34
  6. 6 TEN 8 IND 27
  7. 7 TEN 17 IND 39
  8. 8 TEN 24 IND 50
  9. 9 TEN 10 IND 41
  10. 10 TEN 3 IND 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 3% of them, Colts 97%. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+0.1%
Titans by 9–160.5%
Titans by 1–82.6%
Level after regulation0.4%
Colts by 1–89.1%
Colts by 9–1617.3%
Colts by 17+69.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 24. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 22.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 43 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. Slye, 58 yds missed · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:48 M. Badgley made 43-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him +4% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:48 The Titans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% TEN TEN: Punt
3 Q1 5:56 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% IND TEN: Punt
4 Q2 12:05 The Titans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% TEN TEN: Touchdown
5 Q2 6:05 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% TEN IND: Punt
6 Q2 3:56 The Titans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +4% TEN TEN: Punt
7 Q2 0:06 J. Slye missed 58-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 52 of 78 from 45+ before +9% IND TEN: Punt
8 Q3 12:13 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +4% IND TEN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Charvarius Ward (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Spencer Shrader (IND K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jeffery Simmons (TEN DT), out · 0.8 pts
  • L'Jarius Sneed (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Calvin Ridley (TEN WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Oluwafemi Oladejo (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 0% · Colts 100%

Final margin
Colts by 24
Luck in points
1.4 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 22.6
Replay with same day's form
Titans 3% · Colts 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · Titans · Colts

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