Week 8 2025 · October 26, 2025
Buccaneers at Saints, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
The Buccaneers beat the Saints 23–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:48 left): Return touchdown by the Buccaneers, worth 26 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.
Final
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 23 |
|---|---|
 New Orleans Saints | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +30 Buccaneers lucky · −30 Saints
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Buccaneers win 7, Saints win 3.
- 1 TB 30 NO 7
- 2 TB 24 NO 7
- 3 TB 34 NO 20
- 4 TB 14 NO 3
- 5 TB 25 NO 17
- 6 TB 13 NO 8
- 7 TB 24 NO 22
- 8 TB 10 NO 13
- 9 TB 3 NO 10
- 10 TB 7 NO 24
Your call
Did the Buccaneers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Buccaneers win 70% of them, Saints 30%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 20.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Buccaneers by 17+ | 19.6% |
| Buccaneers by 9–16 | 23.4% |
| Buccaneers by 1–8 | 25.8% |
| Level after regulation | 4.8% |
| Saints by 1–8 | 15.7% |
| Saints by 9–16 | 7.8% |
| Saints by 17+ | 3.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. Grupe, 48 yds made · 75% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 55 yds made · 72% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 52 yds made · 75% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 54 yds made · 73% expected
Penalties: Buccaneers 4 for 25 yards, Saints 8 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:07 | False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NO +0.8 pts |
| Q1 0:02 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Saints (Jonathan Bullard), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TB +0.5 pts |
| Q2 14:12 | Defensive Holding on the Saints (Davon Godchaux), 5 yards | +3% TB +0.9 pts |
| Q2 9:51 | Defensive Offside on the Saints (Carl Granderson), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% TB 0.0 pts |
| Q2 7:23 | False Start on the Saints, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% TB 0.0 pts |
| Q2 2:26 | False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NO +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:08 | Offensive Holding on the Saints (Devaughn Vele), 10 yards | +2% TB +0.9 pts |
| Q3 10:03 | Offensive Holding on the Saints, 9 yards | +1% TB +0.8 pts |
| Q3 9:41 | Delay of Game on the Saints, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% TB +0.5 pts |
| Q3 9:06 | Offensive Holding on the Saints, 7 yards, wiping out the play | +4% TB +2.0 pts |
| Q3 5:21 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards | +2% NO +1.2 pts |
| Q4 1:09 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers (Chris Braswell), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NO +0.3 pts |
Buccaneers penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Saints’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:01 | The Saints converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +8% NO | NO: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 12:25 | The Saints fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% TB | NO: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 6:06 | The Saints converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +7% NO | NO: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 11:00 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +7% TB | TB: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q2 7:28 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +11% NO | TB: Opp touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 6:48 | The Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the BuccaneersSpecial teams | +26% TB | NO: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 0:06 | B. Grupe made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 22 of 33 from 45+ before | +7% NO | NO: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 11:01 | The Buccaneers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws | +6% TB | TB: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Erik McCoy (NO C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Mike Evans (TB WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- Luke Haggard (TB T), out · 0.6 pts
- Luke Goedeke (TB T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Bucky Irving (TB RB), out · 0.4 pts
- Haason Reddick (TB LB), out · 0.4 pts
- Cody Mauch (TB G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Calijah Kancey (TB DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Kindle Vildor (TB CB), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Buccaneers 100% · Saints 0%
- Final margin
- Buccaneers by 20
- Luck in points
- 2.0 for the Saints
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Buccaneers by 22.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Buccaneers 70% · Saints 30% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Buccaneers · 
Saints
More from Week 8 2025
- Vikings at Chargers LAC 37–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Bills at Panthers BUF 40–9 · replay 99% for the winner
- Bears at Ravens BAL 30–16 · replay 55% for the winner
- Browns at Patriots NE 32–13 · replay 99% for the winner
- Dolphins at Falcons MIA 34–10 · replay 78% for the winner
- Giants at Eagles PHI 38–20 · replay 81% for the winner
- Jets at Bengals NYJ 39–38 · replay 71% for the winner
- 49ers at Texans HOU 26–15 · replay 48% for the winner
- Cowboys at Broncos DEN 44–24 · replay 91% for the winner
- Titans at Colts IND 38–14 · replay 97% for the winner
- Packers at Steelers GB 35–25 · replay 97% for the winner
- Commanders at Chiefs KC 28–7 · replay 65% for the winner