luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2025 · October 26, 2025

Dolphins at Falcons, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Falcons 34–10, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

An off day for the Falcons: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Dolphins they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 22%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Falcons were 70% favorites.

Final

Miami Dolphins 34
Atlanta Falcons 10

October 26, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −7

Luck index +22 Dolphins about even · −22 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 8, Falcons win 2.

  1. 1 MIA 35 ATL 6
  2. 2 MIA 41 ATL 20
  3. 3 MIA 27 ATL 10
  4. 4 MIA 23 ATL 9
  5. 5 MIA 30 ATL 20
  6. 6 MIA 22 ATL 14
  7. 7 MIA 27 ATL 22
  8. 8 MIA 17 ATL 14
  9. 9 MIA 13 ATL 16
  10. 10 MIA 24 ATL 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Falcons

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Dolphins they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 22%.

33 points apart for the Falcons: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Dolphins offenseEPA per play gained +0.21 +0.09 better by 0.12
Dolphins defenseEPA per play allowed −0.35 +0.14 better by 0.48
Falcons offenseEPA per play gained −0.35 +0.13 worse by 0.48
Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed +0.21 +0.10 worse by 0.10

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 78% of them, Falcons 22%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+30.4%
Dolphins by 9–1621.3%
Dolphins by 1–826.1%
Level after regulation2.3%
Falcons by 1–811.7%
Falcons by 9–166.3%
Falcons by 17+1.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.4 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Dolphins by 24, without the luck Dolphins by 19.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Romo, 45 yds made · 82% expected
  • R. Patterson, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • R. Patterson, 36 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 4 for 54 yards, Falcons 8 for 76 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:25 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Mike Hughes), 21 yards +5% MIA +1.5 pts
Q1 8:18 Illegal Formation on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% ATL +1.4 pts
Q2 10:40 Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons (Feleipe Franks), 4 yards +1% MIA +0.3 pts
Q2 6:09 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIA +0.6 pts
Q2 2:00 Face Mask on the Falcons (Leonard Floyd), 15 yards +5% MIA +1.2 pts
Q2 0:30 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.6 pts
Q3 11:31 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Feleipe Franks), 10 yards +1% MIA +0.7 pts
Q3 11:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Rasul Douglas), 39 yards +3% ATL +2.0 pts
Q3 8:04 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 6 yards +2% MIA +1.5 pts
Q3 4:18 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Mike Ford), 10 yards +1% MIA +0.8 pts
Q3 2:34 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.8 pts
Q4 11:33 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.8 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:25 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Mike Hughes), 21 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 3771 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +5% MIA MIA: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:07 The Dolphins converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +5% MIA MIA: Touchdown
3 Q1 0:34 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +5% MIA ATL: Field goal
4 Q1 0:27 The Falcons converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +7% ATL ATL: Field goal
5 Q2 13:42 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +6% MIA ATL: Field goal
6 Q2 10:44 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +5% ATL MIA: Punt
7 Q2 9:21 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +5% MIA ATL: Punt
8 Q3 10:31 The Falcons fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% MIA ATL: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Drake London (ATL WR), out · 1.2 pts
  • Kaleb McGary (ATL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Divine Deablo (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Zach Harrison (ATL DL), out · 0.2 pts
  • Tyreek Hill (MIA WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Julian Hill (MIA TE), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 100% · Falcons 0%

Final margin
Dolphins by 24
Luck in points
4.4 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 19.6
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 78% · Falcons 22% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · Dolphins · Falcons

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