Week 8 2025 · October 26, 2025
Packers at Steelers, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
The Packers beat the Steelers 35–25, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 10 of 10. The Steelers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 23 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Before kickoff the Packers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:35 left): the Packers converted 3rd & 7, worth 10 points of win probability to the Packers.
Final
 Green Bay Packers | 35 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 25 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Packers about even · −3 Steelers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Packers win 10, Steelers win 0.
- 1 GB 51 PIT 13
- 2 GB 42 PIT 13
- 3 GB 45 PIT 20
- 4 GB 35 PIT 14
- 5 GB 47 PIT 30
- 6 GB 33 PIT 17
- 7 GB 22 PIT 10
- 8 GB 23 PIT 14
- 9 GB 40 PIT 34
- 10 GB 28 PIT 26
Your call
Did the Packers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Packers win 97% of them, Steelers 3%. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Packers by 17+ | 74.8% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 15.7% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 6.6% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 1.9% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 0.5% |
| Steelers by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Boswell, 56 yds made · 72% expected
- B. McManus, 57 yds missed · 65% expected
- C. Boswell, 50 yds made · 79% expected
- C. Boswell, 48 yds made · 84% expected
- B. McManus, 44 yds missed · 83% expected
- C. Boswell, 56 yds made · 73% expected
- B. McManus, 28 yds made · 97% expected
- B. McManus, 25 yds made · 98% expected
Penalties: Packers 5 for 47 yards, Steelers 6 for 65 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Packers (Chris Brooks), 10 yards | +2% PIT +0.7 pts |
| Q1 10:31 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (D.K. Metcalf), 10 yards | +2% GB +0.9 pts |
| Q1 4:29 | Illegal Shift on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% GB +1.0 pts |
| Q2 9:42 | Defensive Holding on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 5 yards | +7% PIT +1.4 pts |
| Q2 6:08 | False Start on the Steelers (Cameron Heyward), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% GB +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:27 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 21 yards | +5% PIT +2.2 pts |
| Q2 0:18 | Face Mask on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 15 yards | +4% GB +1.1 pts |
| Q3 14:12 | Offensive Holding on the Packers (Javon Bullard), 10 yards | +1% PIT +0.9 pts |
| Q4 13:09 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Nick Herbig), 15 yards | +3% GB +1.4 pts |
| Q4 10:14 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (D.K. Metcalf), 15 yards | +2% GB +0.9 pts |
| Q4 2:07 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Carrington Valentine), 1 yard | 0% PIT 0.0 pts |
Packers penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Steelers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:08 | The Steelers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 55% of interception-worthy throws | +6% PIT | PIT: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 3:30 | The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% GB | GB: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q2 14:55 | B. McManus missed a 57-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 64 of 91 from 45+ before | +9% PIT | GB: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 9:42 | Defensive Holding on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 24 flags in 4341 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 | +7% PIT | PIT: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 0:02 | B. McManus missed a 44-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him | +9% PIT | GB: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 10:18 | The Packers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +5% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 0:35 | The Packers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +10% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 14:55 | The Packers’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +7% GB | GB: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Dontayvion Wicks (GB WR), out · 0.4 pts
- Lucas Havrisik (GB K), out · 0.3 pts
- Lukas Van Ness (GB DL), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Packers 99% · Steelers 1%
- Final margin
- Packers by 10
- Luck in points
- 6.5 for the Steelers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Packers by 16.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Packers 97% · Steelers 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Packers · 
Steelers
More from Week 8 2025
- Vikings at Chargers LAC 37–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Bills at Panthers BUF 40–9 · replay 99% for the winner
- Bears at Ravens BAL 30–16 · replay 55% for the winner
- Browns at Patriots NE 32–13 · replay 99% for the winner
- Dolphins at Falcons MIA 34–10 · replay 78% for the winner
- Giants at Eagles PHI 38–20 · replay 81% for the winner
- Jets at Bengals NYJ 39–38 · replay 71% for the winner
- 49ers at Texans HOU 26–15 · replay 48% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Saints TB 23–3 · replay 70% for the winner
- Cowboys at Broncos DEN 44–24 · replay 91% for the winner
- Titans at Colts IND 38–14 · replay 97% for the winner
- Commanders at Chiefs KC 28–7 · replay 65% for the winner