2025 season · final

Indianapolis Colts, 2025: game by game

The Colts went 8–9 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.8 wins. Luck cost them 1.8: the 8th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–7.

Every game

How often the Colts win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Dolphins	W 33–8	94%	+6
Week 2	vs Broncos	W 29–28	67%	+33
Week 3	@ Titans	W 41–20	89%	+11
Week 4	@ Rams	L 20–27	14%	−14
Week 5	vs Raiders	W 40–6	72%	+28
Week 6	vs Cardinals	W 31–27	83%	+17
Week 7	@ Chargers	W 38–24	56%	+44
Week 8	vs Titans	W 38–14	97%	+3
Week 9	@ Steelers	L 20–27	78%	−78
Week 10	vs Falcons	W 31–25	85%	+15
Week 12	@ Chiefs	L 20–23	15%	−15
Week 13	vs Texans	L 16–20	64%	−64
Week 14	@ Jaguars	L 19–36	38%	−38
Week 15	@ Seahawks	L 16–18	25%	−25
Week 16	vs 49ers	L 27–48	4%	−4
Week 17	vs Jaguars	L 17–23	59%	−59
Week 18	@ Texans	L 30–38	44%	−45

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +6 vs MIA

Wk 2 +33 vs DEN

Wk 3 +11 @ TEN

Wk 4 −14 @ LA

Wk 5 +28 vs LV

Wk 6 +17 vs ARI

Wk 7 +44 @ LAC

Wk 8 +3 vs TEN

Wk 9 −78 @ PIT

Wk 10 +15 vs ATL

Wk 12 −15 @ KC

Wk 13 −64 vs HOU

Wk 14 −38 @ JAX

Wk 15 −25 @ SEA

Wk 16 −4 vs SF

Wk 17 −59 vs JAX

Wk 18 −45 @ HOU

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Colts’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Fumble bounces	+9.4	+0.56
Kicks	+8.3	+0.49
Drops	+7.3	+0.43
Rest	+0.4	+0.02
3rd & 4th downs	−1.4	−0.08
Injuries	−7.1	−0.42
Judgment calls	−9.4	−0.56