2025 season · final
Indianapolis Colts, 2025: game by game
The Colts went 8–9 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.6 wins. Luck cost them 1.6: the 9th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–7.
Every game
How often the Colts win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Dolphins | W 33–8 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 2 | vs Broncos | W 29–28 | 64% | +36 |
| Week 3 | @ Titans | W 41–20 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 4 | @ Rams | L 20–27 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 5 | vs Raiders | W 40–6 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 6 | vs Cardinals | W 31–27 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 7 | @ Chargers | W 38–24 | 60% | +40 |
| Week 8 | vs Titans | W 38–14 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 9 | @ Steelers | L 20–27 | 61% | −61 |
| Week 10 | vs Falcons | W 31–25 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 12 | @ Chiefs | L 20–23 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 13 | vs Texans | L 16–20 | 78% | −78 |
| Week 14 | @ Jaguars | L 19–36 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 15 | @ Seahawks | L 16–18 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 16 | vs 49ers | L 27–48 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 17 | vs Jaguars | L 17–23 | 61% | −61 |
| Week 18 | @ Texans | L 30–38 | 30% | −30 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Colts’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.22 | +12.0 |
| Judgment calls | +0.15 | −3.1 |
| Drops | +0.09 | −4.9 |
| Kicks | +0.02 | +7.1 |
| Injuries | −0.13 | −5.6 |