One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Colts in one-score games

The Colts are 1–4 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 3–7 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 1.4 of those 5. Since 2019: 34–38–1 in 73 one-score games, 37.1 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Colts win in replays (regular season).

2026 −0.4 1–4

2025 −2.0 3–7

2024 +0.5 8–5

2023 +0.3 6–3

2022 +1.3 4–6–1

2021 −1.5 2–5

2020 +0.4 5–2

2019 −1.2 5–6

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	1–4	1.4 of 5	−0.4	2–7
2025	3–7	5.0 of 10	−2.0	8–9
2024	8–5	7.5 of 13	+0.5	8–9
2023	6–3	5.7 of 9	+0.3	9–8
2022	4–6–1	3.2 of 11	+1.3	4–12–1
2021	2–5	3.5 of 7	−1.5	9–8
2020	5–2	4.6 of 7	+0.4	11–5
2019	5–6	6.2 of 11	−1.2	7–9

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 2	@ Chiefs	L 30–33	47%	−47
Week 3	vs Texans	W 19–17	25%	+75
Week 6	vs Titans	L 20–26	20%	−20
Week 7	@ Vikings	L 10–16	31%	−31
Week 9	vs Cowboys	L 23–27	19%	−19

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Indianapolis Colts, every season