luckadjusted

Week 1 2025 · September 7, 2025

Dolphins at Colts, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Dolphins 33–8, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 9 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 5.8 points to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Colts were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:21 left): the Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 8, worth 10 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Miami Dolphins 8
Indianapolis Colts 33

September 7, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −1.5

Luck index +6 Colts about even · −6 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 1, Colts win 9.

  1. 1 MIA 14 IND 9
  2. 2 MIA 7 IND 10
  3. 3 MIA 23 IND 27
  4. 4 MIA 13 IND 20
  5. 5 MIA 0 IND 10
  6. 6 MIA 0 IND 12
  7. 7 MIA 3 IND 17
  8. 8 MIA 3 IND 20
  9. 9 MIA 10 IND 30
  10. 10 MIA 0 IND 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 6% of them, Colts 94%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+0.2%
Dolphins by 9–160.7%
Dolphins by 1–84.3%
Level after regulation1.5%
Colts by 1–816.5%
Colts by 9–1628.3%
Colts by 17+48.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 25. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 24.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Shrader, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • S. Shrader, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • S. Shrader, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • S. Shrader, 48 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 50% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:34 The Colts converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +7% IND IND: Field goal
2 Q1 11:25 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +4% MIA IND: Field goal
3 Q1 8:21 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnnecessary Roughness on the Colts (Zaire Franklin), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 13 flags in 5108 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +10% IND MIA: Turnover
4 Q1 6:52 The Colts converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +3% IND IND: Touchdown
5 Q2 14:23 The Dolphins fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% IND MIA: Punt
6 Q2 9:47 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +3% MIA MIA: Punt
7 Q2 2:42 The Colts converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +3% IND IND: Field goal
8 Q3 11:30 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedThe Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +4% IND MIA: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kendall Lamm (MIA T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Liam Eichenberg (MIA G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kader Kohou (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jason Sanders (MIA K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 0% · Colts 100%

Final margin
Colts by 25
Luck in points
0.3 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 24.7
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 6% · Colts 94% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Dolphins · Colts

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