luckadjusted

Week 1 2025 · September 7, 2025

Ravens at Bills, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Ravens 41–40 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): M. Prater made 32-yard field goal, worth 33 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 40
Buffalo Bills 41

September 7, 2025 · New Era Field · Closing line: Ravens −1.5

Luck index +35 Bills lucky · −35 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 4, Bills win 6.

  1. 1 BAL 35 BUF 17
  2. 2 BAL 24 BUF 13
  3. 3 BAL 32 BUF 26
  4. 4 BAL 38 BUF 36
  5. 5 BAL 31 BUF 33
  6. 6 BAL 30 BUF 35
  7. 7 BAL 41 BUF 51
  8. 8 BAL 29 BUF 44
  9. 9 BAL 24 BUF 45
  10. 10 BAL 24 BUF 55

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 35% of them, Bills 65%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+6.3%
Ravens by 9–1610.4%
Ravens by 1–817.7%
Level after regulation2.1%
Bills by 1–824.8%
Bills by 9–1618.1%
Bills by 17+20.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 0.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Loop, 52 yds made · 67% expected
  • M. Prater, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • T. Loop, 49 yds made · 73% expected
  • M. Prater, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • M. Prater, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 1% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:44 The Bills converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedNeutral Zone Infraction on the Ravens (Nnamdi Madubuike), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 16 flags in 3374 snaps before, position avg 1 per 373 +8% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:34 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +8% BUF BAL: Field goal
3 Q2 14:18 The Ravens converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +9% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q3 13:42 The Ravens converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +9% BAL BAL: Touchdown
5 Q3 8:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Jaire Alexander), 27 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 4305 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +10% BUF BUF: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:00 The Bills converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +9% BUF BUF: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:58 The Bills’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +14% BAL BUF: Field goal
8 Q4 0:03 M. Prater made 32-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him +33% BUF –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyler Bass (BUF K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tylan Grable (BUF T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Isaiah Likely (BAL TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Ar'Darius Washington (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 45% · Bills 55%

Final margin
Bills by 1
Luck in points
0.3 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 35% · Bills 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Ravens · Bills

More from Week 1 2025