luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · September 7, 2025

Ravens at Bills, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Ravens 41–40, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Bills win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:58 left): the Bills’ two-point try failed, worth 14 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 40
Buffalo Bills 41

September 7, 2025 · New Era Field · Closing line: Ravens −1.5

Luck index +51 Bills lucky · −51 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 5, Bills win 5.

  1. 1 BAL 41 BUF 14
  2. 2 BAL 45 BUF 28
  3. 3 BAL 49 BUF 38
  4. 4 BAL 34 BUF 27
  5. 5 BAL 40 BUF 38
  6. 6 BAL 33 BUF 35
  7. 7 BAL 34 BUF 40
  8. 8 BAL 27 BUF 37
  9. 9 BAL 23 BUF 38
  10. 10 BAL 14 BUF 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 51% of them, Bills 49%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+13.9%
Ravens by 9–1613.7%
Ravens by 1–820.5%
Level after regulation4.6%
Bills by 1–820.5%
Bills by 9–1613.1%
Bills by 17+13.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Bills by 1, without the luck Bills by 2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Loop, 52 yds made · 66% expected
  • M. Prater, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • T. Loop, 49 yds made · 71% expected
  • M. Prater, 43 yds made · 83% expected
  • M. Prater, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 7 for 51 yards, Bills 5 for 38 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:44 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Ravens (Nnamdi Madubuike), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% BUF +0.7 pts
Q1 6:16 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Dorian Strong), 5 yards +2% BAL +0.9 pts
Q1 4:55 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.9 pts
Q3 12:48 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Ravens (Tyler Loop), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF 0.0 pts
Q3 8:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Jaire Alexander), 27 yards +10% BUF +4.5 pts
Q3 7:47 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Ravens, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.1 pts
Q3 5:32 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 8 yards, wiping out the play +5% BAL +2.0 pts
Q3 1:09 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Dorian Williams), 10 yards +1% BAL +0.9 pts
Q4 10:21 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +1% BAL +1.8 pts
Q4 7:56 False Start on the Ravens (Tylan Wallace), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.6 pts
Q4 5:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Nate Wiggins), 8 yards 0% BUF +0.9 pts
Q4 0:53 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BAL +0.4 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 1% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:44 The Bills converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expectedNeutral Zone Infraction on the Ravens (Nnamdi Madubuike), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 16 flags in 3374 snaps before, position avg 1 per 373 +7% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q1 3:43 T. Loop made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
3 Q2 14:18 The Ravens converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 7:31 The Bills converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% BUF BUF: Field goal
5 Q3 8:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Jaire Alexander), 27 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 4305 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +10% BUF BUF: Touchdown
6 Q3 5:32 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 8 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:00 The Bills converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +5% BUF BUF: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:58 The Bills’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +14% BAL BUF: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyler Bass (BUF K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tylan Grable (BUF T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Isaiah Likely (BAL TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Ar'Darius Washington (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 35% · Bills 65%

Final margin
Bills by 1
Luck in points
1.0 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 2.0
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 51% · Bills 49% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Ravens · Bills

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