luckadjusted

Week 1 2025 · September 8, 2025

Vikings at Bears, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Bears 27–24, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Bears: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Vikings were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 13:03 left): Return touchdown by the Bears, worth 48 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 27
Chicago Bears 24

September 8, 2025 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Vikings −1.5

Luck index +8 Vikings about even · −8 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 9, Bears win 1.

  1. 1 MIN 41 CHI 7
  2. 2 MIN 40 CHI 13
  3. 3 MIN 33 CHI 10
  4. 4 MIN 41 CHI 23
  5. 5 MIN 29 CHI 13
  6. 6 MIN 37 CHI 24
  7. 7 MIN 22 CHI 13
  8. 8 MIN 36 CHI 30
  9. 9 MIN 27 CHI 24
  10. 10 MIN 17 CHI 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Bears

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%.

42 points apart for the Bears: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Vikings offenseEPA per play gained +0.01 +0.13 worse by 0.12
Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed −0.09 +0.07 better by 0.16
Bears offenseEPA per play gained −0.09 +0.01 worse by 0.11
Bears defenseEPA per play allowed +0.01 +0.12 better by 0.11

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 92% of them, Bears 8%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+61.2%
Vikings by 9–1619.7%
Vikings by 1–811.5%
Level after regulation0.6%
Bears by 1–85.0%
Bears by 9–161.8%
Bears by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bears by 6.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Reichard, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Santos, 42 yds made · 85% expected
  • W. Reichard, 59 yds made · 57% expected
  • C. Santos, 50 yds missed · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 95%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 12:56 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedJ. Jefferson dropped a catchable passDrops · 13 drops on 349 catchable balls before this +9% CHI MIN: Field goal
2 Q2 8:59 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +7% MIN CHI: Punt
3 Q3 13:03 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe Vikings threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BearsSpecial teams +48% CHI MIN: Punt
4 Q4 9:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Tyrique Stevenson), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1874 snaps before, position avg 1 per 244 +11% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q4 9:46 The Vikings’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +7% MIN MIN: Touchdown
6 Q4 7:48 R. Odunze dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 63 catchable balls before this +9% MIN CHI: Punt
7 Q4 2:59 The Vikings converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +9% MIN MIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:09 Illegal Shift on the Bears, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +23% CHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaylon Johnson (CHI CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Kyler Gordon (CHI CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • T.J. Edwards (CHI LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kiran Amegadjie (CHI T), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jordan Addison (MIN WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Harrison Smith (MIN SS), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 18% · Bears 82%

Final margin
Vikings by 3
Luck in points
9.6 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 6.6
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 92% · Bears 8% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Vikings · Bears

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