luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · September 4, 2025

Cowboys at Eagles, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Cowboys 24–20, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:00 left): C. Lamb dropped a catchable pass, worth 24 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 20
Philadelphia Eagles 24

September 4, 2025 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −8.5

Luck index +33 Eagles lucky · −33 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 3, Eagles win 7.

  1. 1 DAL 20 PHI 6
  2. 2 DAL 27 PHI 20
  3. 3 DAL 24 PHI 21
  4. 4 DAL 14 PHI 16
  5. 5 DAL 17 PHI 20
  6. 6 DAL 17 PHI 23
  7. 7 DAL 20 PHI 29
  8. 8 DAL 7 PHI 20
  9. 9 DAL 7 PHI 24
  10. 10 DAL 6 PHI 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 33% of them, Eagles 67%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+2.4%
Cowboys by 9–168.4%
Cowboys by 1–820.9%
Level after regulation1.8%
Eagles by 1–832.8%
Eagles by 9–1621.0%
Eagles by 17+12.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.2 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 4, without the luck Cowboys by 4.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 53 yds made · 73% expected
  • J. Elliott, 58 yds made · 58% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 4 for 42 yards, Eagles 9 for 110 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Disqualification on the Eagles, 15 yards +3% DAL +1.4 pts
Q1 11:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Adoree' Jackson), 0 yards 0% DAL 0.0 pts
Q1 11:49 Illegal Motion on the Eagles (Marcus Epps), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.5 pts
Q1 5:55 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Marist Liufau), 12 yards +3% PHI +1.0 pts
Q1 2:14 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +7% PHI +1.5 pts
Q1 0:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Quinyon Mitchell), 34 yards +13% DAL +3.2 pts
Q2 5:26 Taunting on the Eagles (Nolan Smith), 15 yards +7% DAL +1.6 pts
Q2 0:44 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Jakorian Bennett), 9 yards +2% DAL +0.2 pts
Q2 0:40 Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Nolan Smith), 15 yards +5% DAL +1.6 pts
Q3 5:33 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (George Pickens), 15 yards +4% PHI +0.9 pts
Q3 4:58 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Reed Blankenship), 12 yards +9% DAL +2.0 pts
Q4 12:46 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.7 pts
Q4 7:27 Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.3 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:01 The Eagles converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% PHI PHI: Touchdown
2 Q1 2:14 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 0:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Quinyon Mitchell), 34 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1183 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +13% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 1:53 The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q3 4:58 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Reed Blankenship), 12 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 2680 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +9% DAL DAL: Turnover
6 Q3 4:52 The Cowboys fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% PHI DAL: Punt
7 Q4 2:47 C. Lamb dropped a catchable passDrops · 19 drops on 412 catchable balls before this +7% PHI DAL: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 2:00 C. Lamb dropped a catchable passDrops · 20 drops on 413 catchable balls before this +24% PHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nakobe Dean (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Josh Butler (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • DeMarvion Overshown (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 74% · Eagles 26%

Final margin
Eagles by 4
Luck in points
8.2 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 4.2
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 33% · Eagles 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Cowboys · Eagles

More from Week 1 2025