luckadjusted

Week 2 2025 · September 14, 2025

Broncos at Colts, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Broncos 29–28 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Broncos had the bounces: drops alone were worth 3.2 points to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:00 left): S. Shrader made 45-yard field goal, worth 35 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Denver Broncos 28
Indianapolis Colts 29

September 14, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Broncos −2.5

Luck index +33 Colts lucky · −33 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 3, Colts win 7.

  1. 1 DEN 28 IND 10
  2. 2 DEN 33 IND 26
  3. 3 DEN 17 IND 14
  4. 4 DEN 28 IND 30
  5. 5 DEN 31 IND 35
  6. 6 DEN 23 IND 30
  7. 7 DEN 30 IND 40
  8. 8 DEN 9 IND 23
  9. 9 DEN 16 IND 34
  10. 10 DEN 9 IND 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 33% of them, Colts 67%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+4.8%
Broncos by 9–169.4%
Broncos by 1–818.3%
Level after regulation2.5%
Colts by 1–827.7%
Colts by 9–1621.0%
Colts by 17+16.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 1.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Shrader, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • S. Shrader, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • S. Shrader, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • S. Shrader, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • W. Lutz, 42 yds missed · 86% expected
  • S. Shrader, 45 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 14% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:50 The Colts converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +12% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q2 7:32 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +13% DEN IND: Touchdown
3 Q3 7:13 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yardsJudgment calls +11% DEN DEN: Punt
4 Q4 11:33 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedThe Broncos threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +19% IND DEN: Missed field goal
5 Q4 3:19 W. Lutz missed 42-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +22% IND –
6 Q4 1:50 The Colts converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +15% IND IND: Field goal
7 Q4 0:03 Leverage on the Broncos (Dondrea Tillman), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 529 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +23% IND IND: Field goal
8 Q4 0:00 S. Shrader made 45-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before +35% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaylon Jones (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Laiatu Latu (IND DE), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 46% · Colts 54%

Final margin
Colts by 1
Luck in points
0.6 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 33% · Colts 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Broncos · Colts

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