luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2025 · September 14, 2025

Broncos at Colts, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Broncos 29–28, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Broncos had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 57% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 3:19 left): W. Lutz missed a 42-yard field goal, worth 22 points of win probability to the Colts. The biggest single swing (Q4, 0:03 left): Leverage on the Broncos (Dondrea Tillman), 15 yards.

Final

Denver Broncos 28
Indianapolis Colts 29

September 14, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Broncos −2.5

Luck index +36 Colts lucky · −36 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 4, Colts win 6.

  1. 1 DEN 35 IND 17
  2. 2 DEN 23 IND 13
  3. 3 DEN 14 IND 9
  4. 4 DEN 21 IND 19
  5. 5 DEN 24 IND 26
  6. 6 DEN 10 IND 16
  7. 7 DEN 21 IND 30
  8. 8 DEN 13 IND 24
  9. 9 DEN 14 IND 31
  10. 10 DEN 0 IND 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 36% of them, Colts 64%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+4.8%
Broncos by 9–169.8%
Broncos by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation2.6%
Colts by 1–826.3%
Colts by 9–1619.9%
Colts by 17+17.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Colts by 1, without the luck Colts by 1.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Shrader, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • S. Shrader, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • S. Shrader, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • S. Shrader, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • W. Lutz, 42 yds missed · 87% expected
  • S. Shrader, 45 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 8 for 83 yards, Colts 10 for 62 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:14 Roughing the Passer on the Broncos (Nik Bonitto), 15 yards +5% IND +1.4 pts
Q1 2:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Patrick Surtain II), 23 yards +3% IND +1.5 pts
Q2 14:29 Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Eyioma Uwazurike), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% IND 0.0 pts
Q2 9:14 Illegal Shift on the Colts (Alec Pierce), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.9 pts
Q2 4:39 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts, 10 yards +4% DEN +1.8 pts
Q2 3:59 Defensive Holding on the Colts (Xavien Howard), 3 yards +2% DEN +0.9 pts
Q2 3:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Xavien Howard), 2 yards +2% DEN +0.7 pts
Q2 3:03 Illegal Formation on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.5 pts
Q2 0:29 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Daniel Scott), 7 yards +3% DEN +0.6 pts
Q3 15:00 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Colts (Spencer Shrader), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN 0.0 pts
Q3 10:20 Illegal Contact on the Broncos (Jonathon Cooper), 5 yards +3% IND +0.9 pts
Q3 7:13 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +11% DEN +1.8 pts
Q3 4:54 False Start on the Broncos (Evan Engram), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% IND +0.6 pts
Q3 1:01 False Start on the Colts (Alec Pierce), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.8 pts
Q4 13:02 Roughing the Passer on the Colts (Tyquan Lewis), 15 yards +2% DEN +1.0 pts
Q4 5:02 Delay of Game on the Broncos (J.K. Dobbins), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.5 pts
Q4 4:47 Face Mask on the Broncos (Adam Trautman), 15 yards +3% IND +1.3 pts
Q4 0:03 Leverage on the Broncos (Dondrea Tillman), 15 yards +23% IND +2.0 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 14% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 7:32 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +13% DEN IND: Touchdown
2 Q3 7:13 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yardsJudgment calls +11% DEN DEN: Punt
3 Q3 4:34 The Broncos converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% DEN DEN: Punt
4 Q4 13:06 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +9% DEN IND: Field goal
5 Q4 3:19 The game turned hereW. Lutz missed a 42-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +22% IND –
6 Q4 1:50 The Colts converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +15% IND IND: Field goal
7 Q4 0:03 Leverage on the Broncos (Dondrea Tillman), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 529 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +23% IND IND: Field goal
8 Q4 0:00 S. Shrader made a 45-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before +16% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaylon Jones (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Laiatu Latu (IND DE), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 41% · Colts 59%

Final margin
Colts by 1
Luck in points
0.8 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 36% · Colts 64% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Broncos · Colts

More from Week 2 2025