Week 2 2025 · September 14, 2025
Giants at Cowboys, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
The Cowboys beat the Giants 40–37, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Giants win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 42 points of win probability to the Cowboys.
The Cowboys won on an off day: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Cowboys were 63% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:05 left): B. Aubrey made a 64-yard field goal, worth 28 points of win probability to the Cowboys. The biggest single swing (OT, 4:11 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (George Pickens), 10 yards, wiping out the play.
Final (OT)
 New York Giants | 37 |
|---|---|
 Dallas Cowboys | 40 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +88 Cowboys very lucky · −88 Giants
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Giants win 9, Cowboys win 1.
- 1 NYG 54 DAL 20
- 2 NYG 36 DAL 10
- 3 NYG 39 DAL 17
- 4 NYG 31 DAL 13
- 5 NYG 31 DAL 16
- 6 NYG 27 DAL 16
- 7 NYG 50 DAL 42
- 8 NYG 25 DAL 20
- 9 NYG 23 DAL 21
- 10 NYG 17 DAL 24
Your call
Did the Cowboys earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Cowboys won on an off day
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
46 points apart for the Cowboys: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giants offenseEPA per play gained | +0.26 | +0.03 | better by 0.23 |
| Giants defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.18 | +0.12 | worse by 0.06 |
| Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained | +0.18 | +0.08 | better by 0.11 |
| Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.26 | +0.15 | worse by 0.12 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Giants win 88% of them, Cowboys 12%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Giants by 17+ | 49.8% |
| Giants by 9–16 | 22.0% |
| Giants by 1–8 | 15.7% |
| Level after regulation | 1.2% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 7.2% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 3.0% |
| Cowboys by 17+ | 1.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- G. Gano, 38 yds made · 93% expected
- G. Gano, 33 yds made · 97% expected
- B. Aubrey, 51 yds made · 81% expected
- G. Gano, 33 yds made · 97% expected
- B. Aubrey, 44 yds made · 86% expected
- B. Aubrey, 64 yds made · 48% expected
- B. Aubrey, 46 yds made · 91% expected
Penalties: Giants 14 for 160 yards, Cowboys 12 for 106 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Giants (Swayze Bozeman), 10 yards | +3% DAL +0.9 pts |
| Q1 12:24 | Offensive Holding on the Giants (Darius Slayton), 10 yards | +3% DAL +0.9 pts |
| Q1 8:29 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +5% DAL +1.8 pts |
| Q1 7:47 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants, 15 yards | +4% DAL +1.4 pts |
| Q1 7:47 | False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DAL +0.2 pts |
| Q1 6:40 | False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DAL +0.8 pts |
| Q1 4:58 | Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYG +0.9 pts |
| Q1 4:47 | False Start on the Giants (Daniel Bellinger), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DAL +0.5 pts |
| Q2 3:42 | Defensive Offside on the Giants (Abdul Carter), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYG +0.2 pts |
| Q2 3:24 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Andru Phillips), 10 yards | +2% DAL +1.3 pts |
| Q2 1:46 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Ryan Flournoy), 10 yards | +4% NYG +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:01 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% NYG +1.5 pts |
| Q2 0:01 | False Start on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% DAL +0.2 pts |
| Q3 8:23 | Roughing the Passer on the Giants (Bobby Okereke), 15 yards | +5% DAL +1.8 pts |
| Q3 7:33 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Andru Phillips), 22 yards | +8% DAL +1.9 pts |
| Q3 5:41 | Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% DAL +0.2 pts |
| Q3 5:38 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Markquese Bell), 10 yards | +1% NYG +0.8 pts |
| Q3 1:07 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Paulson Adebo), 23 yards | +10% DAL +1.9 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NYG +0.7 pts |
| Q4 14:13 | Illegal Formation on the Cowboys (Markquese Bell), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYG +0.4 pts |
| Q4 12:58 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Donovan Wilson), 21 yards | +11% NYG +1.1 pts |
| Q4 12:07 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cowboys (Ryan Flournoy), 10 yards | +2% NYG +0.9 pts |
| Q4 9:23 | Roughing the Passer on the Giants (Roy Robertson-Harris), 15 yards | +11% DAL +1.8 pts |
| OT 10:00 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Hunter Luepke), 10 yards | 0% NYG +0.9 pts |
| OT 4:11 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (George Pickens), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +29% NYG +1.5 pts |
| OT 3:01 | Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NYG +0.3 pts |
Giants penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Cowboys’ chance of winning
As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 10:25 | C. Skattebo dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 3 catchable balls before this | +14% DAL | NYG: Field goal |
| 2 | Q4 2:50 | The Giants converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +22% NYG | NYG: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 2:06 | The Cowboys converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +13% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 0:19 | The Cowboys got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws | +19% DAL | DAL: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 0:05 | The game turned hereB. Aubrey made a 64-yard field goalKicks · 48% expected for him, 37 of 40 from 45+ before | +28% DAL | DAL: Punt |
| 6 | OT 7:46 | The Cowboys fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +16% DAL | DAL: Punt |
| 7 | OT 4:11 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (George Pickens), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 15 flags in 2745 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 | +29% NYG | NYG: Turnover |
| 8 | OT 2:09 | The Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws | +21% DAL | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- DaRon Bland (DAL CB), out · 0.9 pts
- Josh Butler (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- DeMarvion Overshown (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Evan Neal (NYG T), out · 0.7 pts
- Micah McFadden (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Rakeem Nunez-Roches (NYG NT), out · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Giants 96% · Cowboys 4%
- Final margin
- Cowboys by 3
- Luck in points
- 14.7 for the Cowboys
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Giants by 11.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Giants 88% · Cowboys 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Giants · 
Cowboys
More from Week 2 2025
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- Browns at Ravens BAL 41–17 · replay 95% for the winner
- Jaguars at Bengals CIN 31–27 · replay 65% for the winner
- Rams at Titans LA 33–19 · replay 91% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins NE 33–27 · replay 44% for the winner
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