luckadjusted

Week 2 2025 · September 14, 2025

Giants at Cowboys, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys stole one. They beat the Giants 40–37, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Giants win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 6.4 points to the Cowboys.

The Cowboys won on an off day: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:50 left): the Giants converted 4th & 4, worth 40 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final (OT)

New York Giants 37
Dallas Cowboys 40

September 14, 2025 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −4.5

Luck index +85 Cowboys very lucky · −85 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 8, Cowboys win 2.

  1. 1 NYG 43 DAL 10
  2. 2 NYG 40 DAL 15
  3. 3 NYG 44 DAL 24
  4. 4 NYG 38 DAL 23
  5. 5 NYG 50 DAL 38
  6. 6 NYG 26 DAL 17
  7. 7 NYG 27 DAL 21
  8. 8 NYG 20 DAL 17
  9. 9 NYG 24 DAL 27
  10. 10 NYG 20 DAL 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Cowboys won on an off day

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%.

45 points apart for the Cowboys: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Giants offenseEPA per play gained +0.26 +0.03 better by 0.23
Giants defenseEPA per play allowed +0.18 +0.12 worse by 0.06
Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained +0.18 +0.08 better by 0.11
Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed +0.26 +0.15 worse by 0.12

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 84% of them, Cowboys 16%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+41.6%
Giants by 9–1622.6%
Giants by 1–819.4%
Level after regulation1.7%
Cowboys by 1–89.1%
Cowboys by 9–163.9%
Cowboys by 17+1.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Giants by 11.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 38 yds made · 92% expected
  • G. Gano, 33 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 51 yds made · 82% expected
  • G. Gano, 33 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 44 yds made · 85% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 64 yds made · 64% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 46 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 10:25 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedC. Skattebo dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 3 catchable balls before this +14% DAL NYG: Field goal
2 Q4 2:50 The Giants converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +40% NYG NYG: Touchdown
3 Q4 0:19 The Cowboys got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +39% DAL DAL: Field goal
4 Q4 0:05 B. Aubrey made 64-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 37 of 40 from 45+ before +19% DAL DAL: Punt
5 QOT 7:46 The Cowboys fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +17% DAL DAL: Punt
6 QOT 7:02 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +15% NYG DAL: Punt
7 QOT 4:11 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (George Pickens), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 15 flags in 2745 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +29% NYG NYG: Turnover
8 QOT 2:09 The Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +24% DAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • DaRon Bland (DAL CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Josh Butler (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • DeMarvion Overshown (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Evan Neal (NYG T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Micah McFadden (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Rakeem Nunez-Roches (NYG NT), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 91% · Cowboys 9%

Final margin
Cowboys by 3
Luck in points
14.5 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 11.5
Replay with same day's form
Giants 84% · Cowboys 16% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Giants · Cowboys

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