luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2025 NFL season · September 11, 2025–September 15

Week 2 2025: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Cowboys beat the Giants 40–37 in a game they win 12% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 2 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Seahawks 31–17 @ Steelers 40% 89% Deserved
Falcons 22–6 @ Vikings 40% 93% Deserved
Colts 29–28 vs Broncos 43% 64% Deserved
Buccaneers 20–19 @ Texans 43% 78% Deserved
Patriots 33–27 @ Dolphins 46% 44% Coin flip

Week 2 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Eagles W 20–17 @ Chiefs 10% +90
2 Cowboys W 40–37 vs Giants 12% +88
3 Patriots W 33–27 @ Dolphins 44% +56
4 Colts W 29–28 vs Broncos 64% +36
5 Bengals W 31–27 vs Jaguars 65% +35
6 Chargers W 20–9 @ Raiders 76% +24
7 49ers W 26–21 @ Saints 77% +23
8 Buccaneers W 20–19 @ Texans 78% +22
9 Cardinals W 27–22 vs Panthers 89% +11
10 Seahawks W 31–17 @ Steelers 89% +11
11 Packers W 27–18 vs Commanders 91% +9
12 Rams W 33–19 @ Titans 91% +9
13 Falcons W 22–6 @ Vikings 93% +7
14 Ravens W 41–17 vs Browns 95% +5
15 Bills W 30–10 @ Jets 98% +2
16 Lions W 52–21 vs Bears 100% 0
17 Bears L 21–52 @ Lions 0% 0
18 Jets L 10–30 vs Bills 2% −2
19 Browns L 17–41 @ Ravens 5% −5
20 Vikings L 6–22 vs Falcons 7% −7
21 Titans L 19–33 vs Rams 9% −9
22 Commanders L 18–27 @ Packers 9% −9
23 Steelers L 17–31 vs Seahawks 11% −11
24 Panthers L 22–27 @ Cardinals 11% −11
25 Texans L 19–20 vs Buccaneers 22% −22
26 Saints L 21–26 vs 49ers 23% −23
27 Raiders L 9–20 vs Chargers 24% −24
28 Jaguars L 27–31 @ Bengals 35% −35
29 Broncos L 28–29 @ Colts 36% −36
30 Dolphins L 27–33 vs Patriots 56% −56
31 Giants L 37–40 @ Cowboys 88% −88
32 Chiefs L 17–20 vs Eagles 90% −90