luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2025 NFL season · September 18, 2025–September 22

Week 3 2025: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Browns beat the Packers 13–10 in a game they win 17% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 3 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Browns 13–10 vs Packers 26% 17% Lucky
Panthers 30–0 vs Falcons 34% 71% Deserved
Lions 38–30 @ Ravens 37% 76% Deserved
Bears 31–14 vs Cowboys 46% 50% Coin flip

Week 3 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Eagles W 33–26 vs Rams 14% +86
2 Browns W 13–10 vs Packers 17% +83
3 Bears W 31–14 vs Cowboys 50% +50
4 Steelers W 21–14 @ Patriots 62% +38
5 Chiefs W 22–9 @ Giants 65% +35
6 Panthers W 30–0 vs Falcons 71% +29
7 49ers W 16–15 vs Cardinals 73% +27
8 Buccaneers W 29–27 vs Jets 75% +25
9 Chargers W 23–20 vs Broncos 76% +24
10 Lions W 38–30 @ Ravens 76% +24
11 Jaguars W 17–10 vs Texans 83% +17
12 Bills W 31–21 vs Dolphins 89% +11
13 Commanders W 41–24 vs Raiders 90% +10
14 Colts W 41–20 @ Titans 94% +6
15 Seahawks W 44–13 vs Saints 96% +4
16 Vikings W 48–10 vs Bengals 98% +2
17 Bengals L 10–48 @ Vikings 2% −2
18 Saints L 13–44 @ Seahawks 4% −4
19 Titans L 20–41 vs Colts 6% −6
20 Raiders L 24–41 @ Commanders 10% −10
21 Dolphins L 21–31 @ Bills 11% −11
22 Texans L 10–17 @ Jaguars 17% −17
23 Ravens L 30–38 vs Lions 24% −24
24 Broncos L 20–23 @ Chargers 24% −24
25 Jets L 27–29 @ Buccaneers 25% −25
26 Cardinals L 15–16 @ 49ers 27% −27
27 Falcons L 0–30 @ Panthers 29% −29
28 Giants L 9–22 vs Chiefs 35% −35
29 Patriots L 14–21 vs Steelers 38% −38
30 Cowboys L 14–31 @ Bears 50% −50
31 Packers L 10–13 @ Browns 83% −83
32 Rams L 26–33 @ Eagles 86% −86