luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2025 · September 22, 2025

Lions at Ravens, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Ravens 38–30, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

An off day for the Ravens: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Lions they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 24%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Ravens were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 8:55 left): the Ravens converted 3rd & 14, worth 10 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Detroit Lions 38
Baltimore Ravens 30

September 22, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −4.5

Luck index +24 Lions about even · −24 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 8, Ravens win 2.

  1. 1 DET 37 BAL 10
  2. 2 DET 48 BAL 26
  3. 3 DET 34 BAL 17
  4. 4 DET 27 BAL 12
  5. 5 DET 31 BAL 20
  6. 6 DET 27 BAL 20
  7. 7 DET 13 BAL 9
  8. 8 DET 32 BAL 30
  9. 9 DET 30 BAL 34
  10. 10 DET 27 BAL 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Ravens

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Lions they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 24%.

32 points apart for the Ravens: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Lions offenseEPA per play gained +0.32 +0.20 better by 0.13
Lions defenseEPA per play allowed +0.10 +0.10 better by 0.01
Ravens offenseEPA per play gained +0.10 +0.23 worse by 0.13
Ravens defenseEPA per play allowed +0.32 +0.07 worse by 0.25

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 76% of them, Ravens 24%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+29.7%
Lions by 9–1620.3%
Lions by 1–825.4%
Level after regulation2.8%
Ravens by 1–812.2%
Ravens by 9–167.1%
Ravens by 17+2.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 points to the Lions: the final margin was Lions by 8, without the luck Lions by 6.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Bates, 67 yds missed · 21% expected
  • T. Loop, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • J. Bates, 45 yds made · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 8 for 68 yards, Ravens 3 for 10 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:36 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Lions (Aidan Hutchinson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.6 pts
Q1 1:55 Offensive Holding on the Lions (D.J. Reed), 1 yard 0% BAL +0.1 pts
Q2 1:24 Illegal Contact on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 5 yards +1% DET +0.2 pts
Q2 1:05 Offensive Holding on the Lions (Grant Stuard), 10 yards +2% BAL +0.9 pts
Q2 0:32 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Terrion Arnold), 16 yards +4% BAL +1.3 pts
Q3 13:38 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Lions (Roy Lopez), 6 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.6 pts
Q3 8:51 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Ravens (Tyler Loop), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% DET 0.0 pts
Q3 5:13 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Lions (Jake Bates), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL 0.0 pts
Q4 13:26 Low Block on the Lions (Brian Branch), 15 yards +4% BAL +1.2 pts
Q4 12:57 False Start on the Ravens (Charlie Kolar), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +0.6 pts
Q4 7:48 Face Mask on the Lions, 15 yards, wiping out the play +8% BAL +2.2 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:27 The Lions converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +7% DET DET: Touchdown
2 Q2 13:07 The Lions converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +7% DET DET: Touchdown
3 Q3 13:27 The Ravens got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +7% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q3 8:55 The Ravens converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% BAL BAL: Touchdown
5 Q4 15:00 The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +8% DET DET: Touchdown
6 Q4 8:48 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +7% BAL DET: Punt
7 Q4 8:31 The Ravens fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% DET BAL: Punt
8 Q4 7:48 Face Mask on the Lions, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% BAL BAL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Isaiah Likely (BAL TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Nnamdi Madubuike (BAL DL), out · 0.5 pts
  • Nnamdi Madubuike (BAL DT), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ar'Darius Washington (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Kyle Van Noy (BAL LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Levi Onwuzurike (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 89% · Ravens 11%

Final margin
Lions by 8
Luck in points
1.9 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 6.1
Replay with same day's form
Lions 76% · Ravens 24% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Lions · Ravens

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