luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2025 · September 21, 2025

Cardinals at 49ers, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Cardinals 16–15, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 22 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:26 left): Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 6 yards, worth 23 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 15
San Francisco 49ers 16

September 21, 2025 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −1.5

Luck index +27 49ers lucky · −27 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 3, 49ers win 7.

  1. 1 ARI 30 SF 13
  2. 2 ARI 31 SF 24
  3. 3 ARI 24 SF 22
  4. 4 ARI 26 SF 28
  5. 5 ARI 23 SF 27
  6. 6 ARI 17 SF 24
  7. 7 ARI 13 SF 23
  8. 8 ARI 13 SF 27
  9. 9 ARI 16 SF 34
  10. 10 ARI 10 SF 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 27% of them, 49ers 73%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+2.8%
Cardinals by 9–166.8%
Cardinals by 1–814.9%
Level after regulation4.9%
49ers by 1–827.4%
49ers by 9–1621.6%
49ers by 17+21.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.7 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was 49ers by 1, without the luck 49ers by 9.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Ryland, 57 yds missed · 58% expected
  • C. Ryland, 34 yds made · 92% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 51 yds made · 71% expected
  • C. Ryland, 28 yds made · 95% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 35 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 5 for 30 yards, 49ers 5 for 69 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:16 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SF +0.6 pts
Q1 10:10 Delay of Game on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SF +0.7 pts
Q2 0:36 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards +4% ARI +1.0 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards +3% ARI +0.9 pts
Q3 10:43 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SF +0.7 pts
Q3 4:38 Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Kendrick Bourne), 10 yards +3% ARI +0.7 pts
Q4 14:22 Intentional Grounding on the Cardinals (Kyler Murray), 10 yards +4% SF +0.9 pts
Q4 9:29 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Renardo Green), 33 yards +19% ARI +3.7 pts
Q4 3:26 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 6 yards +23% ARI +1.7 pts
Q4 1:12 Illegal Use of Hands on the Cardinals (Denzel Burke), 5 yards +4% SF +0.3 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

As low as 14% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 9:16 The Cardinals converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +12% ARI ARI: Field goal
2 Q3 6:43 E. Demercado dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 39 catchable balls before this +12% SF ARI: Field goal
3 Q3 0:20 The 49ers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +12% ARI SF: Touchdown
4 Q4 14:22 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Cardinals (Kyler Murray), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 5547 snaps before, position avg 1 per 625 +11% SF ARI: Punt
5 Q4 12:06 The 49ers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +8% SF SF: Touchdown
6 Q4 9:29 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Renardo Green), 33 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 876 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +19% ARI ARI: Touchdown
7 Q4 3:39 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +8% SF ARI: Punt
8 Q4 3:26 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 6 yardsJudgment calls +23% ARI ARI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brock Purdy (SF QB), out, replaced by m.jones · 8.3 pts
  • George Kittle (SF TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Jauan Jennings (SF WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Malik Mustapha (SF FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ben Bartch (SF OL), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Ben Bartch (SF G), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Sean Murphy-Bunting (ARI CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Garrett Williams (ARI CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Will Johnson (ARI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Jones (ARI T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • L.J. Collier (ARI DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 30% · 49ers 70%

Final margin
49ers by 1
Luck in points
8.7 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 9.7
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 27% · 49ers 73% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Cardinals · 49ers

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