luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2025 · September 21, 2025

Chiefs at Giants, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Giants 22–9, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:01 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Trent McDuffie), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 14 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Kansas City Chiefs 22
New York Giants 9

September 21, 2025 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −6

Luck index +35 Chiefs lucky · −35 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 7, Giants win 3.

  1. 1 KC 36 NYG 10
  2. 2 KC 31 NYG 13
  3. 3 KC 17 NYG 3
  4. 4 KC 17 NYG 6
  5. 5 KC 17 NYG 10
  6. 6 KC 14 NYG 10
  7. 7 KC 21 NYG 19
  8. 8 KC 7 NYG 10
  9. 9 KC 9 NYG 17
  10. 10 KC 14 NYG 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 65% of them, Giants 35%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+15.1%
Chiefs by 9–1621.6%
Chiefs by 1–826.9%
Level after regulation2.8%
Giants by 1–819.9%
Giants by 9–169.3%
Giants by 17+4.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.2 points to the Chiefs: the final margin was Chiefs by 13, without the luck Chiefs by 11.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 54 yds made · 70% expected
  • H. Butker, 48 yds made · 79% expected
  • H. Butker, 40 yds missed · 90% expected
  • H. Butker, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Gano, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chiefs 8 for 85 yards, Giants 7 for 82 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:37 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% NYG +3.0 pts
Q2 14:04 Illegal Contact on the Giants (Andru Phillips), 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% NYG +0.4 pts
Q2 11:00 Illegal Formation on the Chiefs, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% NYG +1.9 pts
Q2 1:57 Roughing the Passer on the Chiefs (George Karlaftis III), 15 yards +8% NYG +2.0 pts
Q2 1:53 Defensive Holding on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 5 yards +1% NYG +0.2 pts
Q2 1:21 Kick Catch Interference on the Chiefs (Joshua Williams), 15 yards +3% NYG +1.0 pts
Q2 1:06 Face Mask on the Chiefs (Nohl Williams), 15 yards +6% NYG +1.4 pts
Q2 0:27 Illegal Contact on the Giants (Andru Phillips), 5 yards +6% KC +0.2 pts
Q2 0:23 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Andru Phillips), 52 yards +12% KC +2.2 pts
Q4 15:00 Illegal Touch Pass on the Giants (Wan'Dale Robinson), 0 yards 0% KC 0.0 pts
Q4 14:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Trent McDuffie), 5 yards, wiping out the play +14% NYG +5.3 pts
Q4 6:07 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Chiefs (Kareem Hunt), 15 yards +1% NYG +1.4 pts
Q4 4:32 Illegal Shift on the Giants (Darius Slayton), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.9 pts
Q4 3:15 Intentional Grounding on the Giants (Russell Wilson), 10 yards 0% KC +0.9 pts
Q4 2:04 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KC +0.3 pts

Chiefs penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:37 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% NYG NYG: Punt
2 Q2 5:28 H. Butker missed a 40-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him +10% NYG KC: Punt
3 Q2 2:48 The Giants converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% NYG NYG: Touchdown
4 Q2 1:35 The Chiefs fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% KC KC: Punt
5 Q2 0:33 The Chiefs got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +8% KC KC: Field goal
6 Q2 0:23 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Andru Phillips), 52 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 772 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +12% KC KC: Field goal
7 Q4 14:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Trent McDuffie), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 11 flags in 3509 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +14% NYG NYG: Field goal
8 Q4 10:57 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +8% KC NYG: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Evan Neal (NYG T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Micah McFadden (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darius Muasau (NYG LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Rakeem Nunez-Roches (NYG NT), out · 0.1 pts
  • Xavier Worthy (KC WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Michael Danna (KC DE), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 96% · Giants 4%

Final margin
Chiefs by 13
Luck in points
1.2 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 11.8
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 65% · Giants 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Chiefs · Giants

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