2025 season · final

Kansas City Chiefs, 2025: game by game

The Chiefs went 6–11 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.4 wins. Luck cost them 3.4: the 2nd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–9.

Every game

How often the Chiefs win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Chargers	L 21–27	14%	−14
Week 2	vs Eagles	L 17–20	90%	−90
Week 3	@ Giants	W 22–9	63%	+37
Week 4	vs Ravens	W 37–20	37%	+63
Week 5	@ Jaguars	L 28–31	74%	−74
Week 6	vs Lions	W 30–17	64%	+36
Week 7	vs Raiders	W 31–0	99%	+1
Week 8	vs Commanders	W 28–7	66%	+34
Week 9	@ Bills	L 21–28	13%	−13
Week 11	@ Broncos	L 19–22	58%	−58
Week 12	vs Colts	W 23–20	85%	+15
Week 13	@ Cowboys	L 28–31	39%	−39
Week 14	vs Texans	L 10–20	89%	−89
Week 15	vs Chargers	L 13–16	47%	−47
Week 16	@ Titans	L 9–26	35%	−35
Week 17	vs Broncos	L 13–20	26%	−26
Week 18	@ Raiders	L 12–14	45%	−45

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −14 @ LAC

Wk 2 −90 vs PHI

Wk 3 +37 @ NYG

Wk 4 +63 vs BAL

Wk 5 −74 @ JAX

Wk 6 +36 vs DET

Wk 7 +1 vs LV

Wk 8 +34 vs WAS

Wk 9 −13 @ BUF

Wk 11 −58 @ DEN

Wk 12 +15 vs IND

Wk 13 −39 @ DAL

Wk 14 −89 vs HOU

Wk 15 −47 vs LAC

Wk 16 −35 @ TEN

Wk 17 −26 vs DEN

Wk 18 −45 @ LV

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Chiefs’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Fumble bounces	+12.6	+0.74
3rd & 4th downs	+1.8	+0.11
Rest	+0.4	+0.02
Drops	−0.6	−0.04
Kicks	−15.9	−0.94
Injuries	−16.4	−0.96
Judgment calls	−25.3	−1.49