2025 season · final

Kansas City Chiefs, 2025: game by game

The Chiefs went 6–11 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.9 wins. Luck cost them 3.9: the unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–9.

Every game

How often the Chiefs win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Chargers	L 21–27	15%	−15
Week 2	vs Eagles	L 17–20	90%	−90
Week 3	@ Giants	W 22–9	65%	+35
Week 4	vs Ravens	W 37–20	50%	+50
Week 5	@ Jaguars	L 28–31	69%	−69
Week 6	vs Lions	W 30–17	68%	+32
Week 7	vs Raiders	W 31–0	98%	+2
Week 8	vs Commanders	W 28–7	65%	+35
Week 9	@ Bills	L 21–28	14%	−14
Week 11	@ Broncos	L 19–22	56%	−56
Week 12	vs Colts	W 23–20	86%	+14
Week 13	@ Cowboys	L 28–31	59%	−59
Week 14	vs Texans	L 10–20	79%	−79
Week 15	vs Chargers	L 13–16	48%	−48
Week 16	@ Titans	L 9–26	41%	−41
Week 17	vs Broncos	L 13–20	41%	−41
Week 18	@ Raiders	L 12–14	46%	−46

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −15 @ LAC

Wk 2 −90 vs PHI

Wk 3 +35 @ NYG

Wk 4 +50 vs BAL

Wk 5 −69 @ JAX

Wk 6 +32 vs DET

Wk 7 +2 vs LV

Wk 8 +35 vs WAS

Wk 9 −14 @ BUF

Wk 11 −56 @ DEN

Wk 12 +14 vs IND

Wk 13 −59 @ DAL

Wk 14 −79 vs HOU

Wk 15 −48 vs LAC

Wk 16 −41 @ TEN

Wk 17 −41 vs DEN

Wk 18 −46 @ LV

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Chiefs’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	+0.32	+16.4
3rd & 4th downs	−0.26	+0.7
Injuries	−0.29	−12.6
Judgment calls	−0.41	−10.1
Kicks	−1.01	−16.6